The RN’s sleight of hand
Let’s start by dissecting the vote for the far right, which is unprecedented in scale and terrifying in the eyes of some. First, as explained by the Ipsos Talan survey conducted for France Télévisions, Radio France and Public Sénat, the RN’s historic score can be explained by a “diversified and broadened” electorate. Not only have its traditional supporters (workers, employees, etc.) been strongly mobilized, but it is now attracting people who were previously quite hostile to it, such as retirees (with 31% of the vote, compared to 12% in the 2002 legislative elections), women and the most well-off (32% of respondents with an income of more than 3,000 euros say they voted for the RN, far ahead of the left and Ensemble). It is also making strong progress among the under-35s, executives, the most highly educated and in large cities.
“Paradoxically, what worries me now is that the National Rally is failing to implement its programme”
In short, Jordan Bardella’s party has managed this incredible sleight of hand consisting of retaining the majority of the working class vote, while conquering the middle classes and seducing a part of the retirees. It must be said that it has spared no effort in this regard.We completely forget the middle classes, who work and pay for everyone.“, Jordan Bardella complained recently on CNews. A well-rehearsed and insidious speech, which aims to make French workers believe that they are financing foreigners and “French of foreign origin”. Enough to attract many citizens threatened with downgrading.
The party that represents vulnerable people
Most voters, from all parties, say that purchasing power and immigration are the two issues they took most into account in their choice of vote during the first round…”Marine Le Pen’s political offer, by combining authority and the social question, seems to meet the expectations of a large part of an electorate that has moved to the right and is still seeking security, but also economic promotion or fairness in the treatment of citizens.analyzes Luc Rouban, research director at CNRS and Cevipof. The RN presents itself as the party that intends to protect the way of life of all French people despite the effects of globalization and climate change. In the historical tension that opposes it to Macronism, it has become the standard-bearer of vulnerability..
In France, the National Rally is trying to win the hearts – and votes – of farmers
To better understand the RN vote, we must also understand that it is now very much anchored in people’s minds: most of this party’s voters had already made their decision several weeks ago, according to the “Understanding the French Vote” survey by Ipsos. And this is a vote of support and not of protest, coming from people who ardently wish for the RN to win. Finally, this vote is also very rooted in the territories. The victory in the first round of 39 RN candidates testifies to this local anchoring and the creation of networks of notable Le Penists, most of whom are already among the far-right deputies in place since 2022.
Urban vote versus rural vote?
The success of the united left is explained in particular by a clear progression among young people: almost half of the 18-24 year-olds who voted (48%) chose the NFP. The alliance of the left also came out on top among the most qualified (Bac + 3 and above) with 37% of the votes. And it redoubled its electoral power in Île-de-France, and in particular in Paris: the left came out on top in 13 of the 18 constituencies (only the bourgeois west remained loyal to the presidential camp).Once again, Paris, a left-wing and ecological city for 20 years and of which I have been mayor for 10 years, is resisting.“, Mayor Anne Hidalgo said in the evening.
While it is tempting at this stage to evoke the growing divide between metropolises and peri-urban and rural areas, Olivier Bouba-Olga, university professor and head of the Studies and Foresight department of the Nouvelle-Aquitaine Region, demonstrated in a blog post “The Bardella vote: a rural vote?” that it would be wrong to think that rural people vote for Bardella because they feel abandoned, while urban people resist on the grounds that they would be more exposed to diversity; and therefore protected from this extreme vote.I have already warned, along with many other researchers, about the strong limits of these geographical interpretations of the vote. Yes, when we compare urban and rural votes, there is a very significant gap for certain candidates. But for the most part, it is an effect of social composition: when we compare rural votes and urban votes at the same level of education and age group, we observe practically no difference.” he notes.
In all cases, “French voting behavior has changed dramatically“, Jérôme Fourquet, expert in electoral geography and author of France after (Threshold). Yet another piece of data that Emmanuel Macron completely missed…
