Keystone-SDA
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July 01, 2024 – 7:56 p.m.
(Keystone-ATS) After the unprecedented score of the RN in the first round of the legislative elections, the withdrawals of left-wing and Macronist candidates are increasing. This is to prevent the extreme right from obtaining an absolute majority, and to maintain the hope of a “grand coalition”.
Following the unprecedented score of the RN in the first round of the legislative elections, withdrawals by left-wing and Macronist candidates are increasing, exceeding one hundred on Monday, to prevent the far right from obtaining an absolute majority, and to maintain the hope of a “grand coalition”.
Around a hundred left-wing or Macronist candidates involved in three-way races have already withdrawn on Monday in order to counter the National Rally, according to a provisional count by AFP.
Among these, at this stage, there are a majority of representatives of the left-wing alliance New Popular Front, as well as three ministers (Sabrina Agresti-Roubache, Marie Guévenoux, Fadila Khattabi).
Candidates still in the running have until Tuesday 6:00 p.m. to decide whether to withdraw and thus drastically reduce the number of three-way races, which stood at more than 300 on Sunday evening due to the high turnout in the first round (66.7%).
More than 10 million voices
On Sunday, the navy blue wave swept through with more than 10.6 million votes, or 33.1% of the vote, a historic level – excluding the second round of the 2022 presidential election.
The RN has struck a major blow, by electing 39 deputies, starting with Marine Le Pen in Pas-de-Calais. The party with the flame, allied with Eric Ciotti, qualified in 443 of the 577 constituencies and is in the lead in 296 of them.
With 27.99%, the New Popular Front already has 32 elected representatives. But it lost the communist Fabien Roussel, swept away by the RN tidal wave in the North. Another of its leading figures, François Ruffin, is in a difficult position in the Somme even with the withdrawal of the Macronist candidate.
The outgoing majority is taking stock after its defeat (20.8% of the vote). While Gabriel Attal is one of about ten ministers likely to win on Sunday, four others are off to a bad start, and three have already announced their withdrawal.
Instructions
Emmanuel Macron told his ministers gathered at the Elysée that “not a single vote” should “go to the far right”, recalling that the left had mobilised against the RN in 2017 and in 2022, allowing its own accession to the Elysée, according to a participant.
On Sunday, however, he did not give a clear instruction to withdraw from the second round of elections, according to several ministerial sources.
While several Renaissance candidates who came third have already announced their withdrawal, such as Sylvie Casenave-Péré, who came third behind Marie-Caroline Le Pen in Sarthe, some intend to stay, believing they have more reserves of votes than the left, or that their withdrawal would favour the RN, such as Loïc Signor in Val-de-Marne.
The outgoing majority is struggling to speak with one voice when it comes to supporting an LFI candidate between those who, like Edouard Philippe or Bruno Le Maire, want ‘neither the RN nor LFI’, those who take a “case-by-case” approach like the outgoing President of the Assembly Yaël Braun-Pivet and those who, on the left wing, do not set any conditions.
Anything rather than the RN’s “disastrous project”, this is the line defended by Gabriel Attal, who spoke with the candidates by videoconference on Monday afternoon.
“We recover from failure but we do not recover from dishonor,” he told the candidates who withdrew, according to one participant. Nor did he appear to set any conditions for these withdrawals.
Grande coalition
On the NFP side, the parties have already instructed their candidate in third place to withdraw. But for LFI, this rule only applies to cases where the RN is in the lead. The rebellious candidate thus withdrew in favor of the former Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne, second behind the RN in Calvados.
But he is holding on in the constituency of Gérald Darmanin who narrowly overtook the RN. Conversely, an environmentalist candidate withdrew in Haute-Loire to favour Laurent Wauquiez (LR) who is only two points ahead of the RN.
When they had the opportunity, the LR have chosen to stay in power, like Maxime Minot, who came third behind the left and the RN in Oise.
Before these withdrawals, pollsters were predicting a large relative majority of at least 240 seats for Jordan Bardella’s troops, or even a narrow absolute majority of up to 295 seats.
The effect of the withdrawals “will rather work against the RN”, according to the deputy general director of Ipsos Brice Teinturier, who envisages a more relative than absolute majority.
Alternatively, several officials from the presidential camp, such as Yaël Braun-Pivet, called for a “grand coalition” of communists and LR the day after July 7.
But the head of the Socialist Party Olivier Faure refused on Monday to be “the substitute for a majority in disarray”, setting out his conditions for a possible “majority of projects” of the “republican forces”, which Gabriel Attal called for on Sunday.
Bardella ready to debate
On the RN side, Sébastien Chenu seemed to qualify the position of the party with the flame which was to say that Jordan Bardella would not go to Matignon without an absolute majority. “If there is indeed support to be found, we will assume our responsibilities before the French people,” declared the vice-president of the RN.
On X, Mr. Bardella said he was “ready to debate with Jean-Luc Mélenchon,” without Gabriel Attal, because he considers that there are only “two choices” for the French, “the far left in power” or “national unity.” While Jean-Luc Mélenchon said he agreed to a debate between the two parties, he ruled out his own participation, referring to the leaders of LFI.
