Warm-up tour this Wednesday in Brussels for Prime Minister Michel Barnier. In three hours shows in hand, the one who passed “ almost 15 years », as he likes to remind us, on the floors of the Berlaymont, the headquarters of the European Commission, held a series of interviews and put the foot in the door with Benjamin Haddad, the young minister responsible for European affairs directly attached to Matignon, more familiar with transatlantic affairs than Brussels mysteries.
With a 2025 budget still lying fallow, social discontent growing and farmers announcing the country will be blocked from next week, the atmosphere was not really one of social gatherings. The Prime Minister had come to speak “ competitiveness », « simplification », « especially for farmers », « Mercosur », « this » et « immigration “, he declared after the interviews.
The guarantees of recovery
First stop: the office of Commission Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis, who has the upper hand in controlling budgetary rules and should keep it for the next five years. The least we can say is that in less than two and a half months, Michel Barnier has multiplied the guarantees of recovery. He was accompanied by Jérôme Fournel, one of the architects at Bercy, as director of public finances, of the “medium-term reform plan” transmitted on October 31 to the Commission, and who has since become his chief of staff.
Green light or sanctions? The risks of the French budget in Brussels
L’« spectacular effort » planned in the 2025 budget allowed France to get back on track with the new budgetary rules and not be among the bad students who have not yet submitted their copy. In reality, “ consultations started several weeks ago », Explains a source close to the matter. During the examination of this plan by the Senate at the end of October, some pointed out that the component “ reforms » was still a little thin. The conversation is set to last.
“Do not endanger entire sectors”
There is much less time left on the hot issue of the moment: the association agreement with Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia). This mega-agreement, in the profession for 20 years, crystallizes discontent. An insistent rumor, duly documented this Wednesday by the site Politicowould like the President of the Commission to seek to pass in force by the end of the year.
Ursula von der Leyen, « that I know well », explained the Prime Minister at the end of this interview, would like to take advantage of the G20 meeting in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), next week, to reach a political agreement at least on the commercial aspect. The German automobile industry has been waiting for years for the virtual elimination of customs duties provided for by the agreement, to boost its exports. These opportunities are all the more anticipated as the outlook is darkening in the United States with the election of Republican Donald Trump to the presidency. But the result of these long negotiations does not satisfy European farmers, who demonstrated on Wednesday in front of the Berlaymont, headquarters of the Commission, against the excess of standards and the risk of South American competition which they consider unfair.
Mercosur: Brussels refuses to review the agricultural component
« Under current conditions, this agreement is not acceptable to France and it will not be. I recommend that we do not ignore the position of a country like France “, declared the Prime Minister before taking the train back to Paris. “ It’s about not putting entire sectors at risk. », he added, in reference to poultry and beef producers who anticipate a flooding of the European market by products that do not respect European standards. He also ruled out the option of a compensation mechanism.
Explosive file
« France set three conditions for signing the agreement, namely: not increasing imported deforestation in the EU, bringing the agreement into compliance with the 2015 Paris climate agreement and introducing mirror measures in health and environmental matters. Obviously, these conditions are not satisfied », Explained on Tuesday more than 600 French parliamentarians in an open letter to Ursula von der Leyen published by the daily The World.
However, the hearings of the commissioners appointed in recent days by European deputies showed that France was in the minority in its rejection of the Mercosur agreement. But the coming battle will take place in the Council of Ministers, between member states. “ Ursula von der Leyen must be prevented from circumventing the principle of unanimity [qui avait été posé en 2019, ndlr]. The challenge is to succeed in reforming a blocking minority », according to French Socialist MEP Chloé Ridel, in unison with her compatriots from other political groups.
The case is, it is true, explosive. “ The anger of farmers, plus factory closures, plus the dismantling of SNCF freight, that's a lot… We can't have three assets, three bombs exploding at the same time between now and Christmas », Explains a European source. “ On the budget, he can negotiate deadlines. The urgency is to defuse the problem with farmers to avoid merging with other social struggles ».
