Climate: CO2 emissions from fossil fuels will break a record

CO₂ emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels will reach a new record this year, according to a study published Wednesday by scientists from the Global Carbon Project, which sees no clear peak in the use of oil, gas and coal.

According to this benchmark study, global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels will reach a record level in 2024, with 37.4 billion tonnes, an increase of 0.8% compared to 2023.

Adding forecast emissions linked to land use change, such as deforestation, total emissions are expected to reach 41.6 billion tonnes this year (+2.5%). Total CO₂ emissions have plateaued over the past decade, according to the Global Carbon Project.

Global peak expected before 2030

“The effects of climate change are increasingly dramatic, but there is still no indication that the use of fossil fuels has peaked,” said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of the British University of Exeter, who led the study.

According to Glen Peters of the Center for International Climate Research in Oslo, the world is “very frustratingly close” to a peak in fossil fuel emissions. “Renewable (energies) are increasing sharply,” as are electric cars, “but it is still not enough,” he told journalists.

Since 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has estimated that the global peak in consumption of fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal) will occur “before 2030”.

The carbon budget remains “almost exhausted”

At the current rate, the team of 120 scientists behind the Global Carbon Budget report estimates that there is a 50% chance that warming will exceed 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era, the target more ambitious of the 2015 Paris agreement, “consistently within about six years”.

If this estimate is “subject to large uncertainties”, “it is clear that the remaining carbon budget – and therefore the time remaining to achieve the 1.5°C objective and avoid the worst impacts of climate change – is almost exhausted,” underlines the Global Carbon Project in a press release.

Emissions from China, the world’s largest emitter of CO2, are expected to increase by 0.2% – although the emissions range includes a possible decrease. Emissions from the United States are expected to fall by 0.6%, those from India to increase by 4.6% and those from the European Union to decrease by 3.8%.

The report further states that current levels of carbon dioxide removal through technology, thus excluding natural means such as reforestation, can only offset one millionth of the CO₂ emitted by fossil fuels.

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