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While the weather forecasts announced a summer breaking all heat records, Tameteo.com shakes up these expectations. Depending on the site, summer is coming under different auspices. Of the capricious winds and torrential rains could well be the real protagonists of the season.
The El Niño weather phenomenon is coming to an end
The El Niño phenomenon lasted about a year. With his climatic whims, he left behind him a series extreme weather events. The oppressive heat, a sign of its presence, spared no corner of the globe, including France.
In 2023, France saw its summer stretch well beyond the usual seasonal limits, with heat waves which followed one another without respite. Winter was not to be outdone with a discreet presence of snow in the plains.
But according to the weather report for Thursday June 13, 2024 from Climate Prediction Center, El Niño said goodbye. Now it’s time for La Niña, which promises to reshape the climate landscape. It will cause notable changes in precipitation and tropical cyclone activity.
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Weather: serious disruptions expected until the end of June? Trends revealed
A weather trend towards thermal anomaly
Fluctuating temperatures continue in the Pacific, with warning signs of changing weather. Region 3.4, a key indicator of El Niño phenomenon, shows a notable drop in the thermal anomaly. In fact, it goes from +0.5°C in May to a shy +0.1°C.
Meanwhile, Region 1+2, near the coasts of Peru and Ecuador, plays the thermal roller coaster. A coastal Niña is emerging there with temperatures oscillating between -1.5 and -0.5 °C.
While these areas are already flirting with neutral weather conditions Or lean towards La Niña, region 4 is still resisting with a weakened El Niño. But it persists in the central Pacific, far from the Americas, with an anomaly of +0.8°C.
Summer is coming under the sign of a mild to moderate La Niña, with a 65% chance to his credit. Fall and winter could also follow this trend with moderate to strong intensity and probabilities oscillating between 50 and 60%. Thermal anomalies could then vary from -0.5 to -1.2°C, and even reach -1.5°C.
Fake weather forecasts?
The site Tameteo.com had predicted it for weeks. He announced that a weather shift would replace the suffocating heat and drought with torrential downpours and a welcome freshness.
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Weather alert: a major disturbance affects France, regions threatened
However, some media have sowed confusion. Instead, they announced the persistence of heat and the absence of rain. This echoes the fears raised by the famous “heat dome”.
But rest assured! The majority of climate models and their projections converge towards a more humid and less hot scenario, depending on the region. This weather transition should be a boon for our water supplies and thirsty forests. However, vulnerable urban areas could suffer.
La Niña shakes up trends
With the arrival of La Niña, the weather picture becomes more complicated. Traditionally, this phenomenon leads to an increase in cyclones in the Atlantic. Tropical waves will also intensify their activity over or near Mexico. They will therefore cause heavier precipitation.
At the same time, the Pacific expects a drop in its cyclonic activityimpacting precipitation in the northwest and west.
The forecasts are unanimous. Weather institutions and offices anticipate between 15 and 25 named storms for the season. This figure is well above average. Tameteo.com aligns with these estimates with a forecast of 25 storms. In addition, the intertropical convergence zone could influence precipitation in the central-south.
