Why would voters who voted on June 9 vote differently on June 30? This is the first lesson from the Ifop poll for the JDD, which confirms the fracturing into three blocks of the political landscape with a spectacular domination of the National Rally: 35% of voting intentions, and above all a domination in all socio-professional categories, among business leaders (31%), employees (41%), the unemployed (35%) and even retirees, an electorate that has long remained the most distrustful of the RN (29%). Among young people, the Popular Front benefits from the survival of the adage according to which “when you are young, you are left” and comes well ahead among 18-24 year olds (43% against 19% for the RN), but once the adolescent fever has passed, the RN is back in front among 25-34 year olds, reaching a record level (44% against 30% for the Popular Front).
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IFOP survey for the JDD.
© IFOP
Like the balance of power among 18-34 year olds dominated by the RN and Popular Front blocs, the “Together” banner of the presidential majority is relegated to third place with 19% of voting intentions. Shock and incomprehension could be seen on the faces of Macronist activists on the evening of the European elections, when the President of the Republic announced the dissolution. Emmanuel Macron loses what until now protected him: a concrete electoral base. Only 61% of those who voted for him in the first round of the 2022 presidential election support his colors in the run-up to June 30. Retirees, a very mobilized electorate on voting days, who overwhelmingly chose Emmanuel Macron during the last elections, now only 28% follow him, now preferring the National Rally.
In view of this failure of his electoral heart, the “repel” president would undoubtedly have an interest in listening to Édouard Philippe and François Bayrou who recommended to him this week to “ take a step back » and to avoid platforms and big speeches. Many deputies who were elected solely on Macron’s thumb, sent back to the trenches on June 30, have also chosen to erase any reference to the presidential surname from their leaflets and posters. “ Above all, let him keep quiet! » implores one of the pillars of the Renaissance group.
Even the most established ministers choose to make no mention of the presidential colors or the “Together” stamp. “ No, no, I didn’t put the president’s photospecifies a minister campaigning in Yvelines, just my substitute and me, it’s more reassuring for people… » Faced for the first time with defeat, the president’s troops who, for the most part, “owed him everything”, stake their survival and that of their collaborators. Politics is a noble fight, it is also a mandate, compensation and jobs. Even if it may seem inelegant to recall it, the defeat of the majority in the legislative elections will result in “ a huge social plan », Underlines an understanding advisor to the President of the Republic.
On the left, the momentum of the Popular Front seems to have limited scope, with a total of 26%, stable compared to the first round of the 2022 legislative elections (25.6%). A worrying indicator even though neither the “purge” at LFI nor the surprise candidacy of François Hollande had shaken the remarriage of the Nupes partners. On the other hand, the distrust of some of Raphaël Glucksmann’s voters towards the new virginity granted to La France insoumise is already causing damage. Only 63% of those who voted for the Place publique/PS list in the European elections redirected their votes towards the Popular Front. Like the “Macron foil”, Jean-Luc Mélenchon seems to scare away those he once made people dream of. Not to mention the comments with anti-Semitic overtones from those close to him and the program of the new union that no socialist of this century could digest without regurgitating it at the first mouthful.
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Faced with two blocks already undermined by division, the National Rally is progressing with the wind at its back. Carried by two successful political blows in barely a week: recovering Marion Maréchal by crushing Éric Zemmour and exploding the Republicans with the rallying of Éric Ciotti.
