Gathered in Budapest, the Twenty-Seven discussed the consequences for the EU of the election of Donald Trump. They did so at a dinner organized on Thursday evening after the summit of the European Political Community (EPC), and before the informal meeting of the European Council on Friday. Common watchword: don’t panic. “We’re going to start the discussion.”with the new master of Washington, “discuss our common interests” and, where applicable, “negotiate”said the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, on Friday, citing, among other things, European purchases of American liquefied natural gas.
The Twenty-seven agree: to save the competitiveness of the European economy, it is now or never
The Twenty-seven claim to be better prepared for Trump II than they were for Trump I, eight years ago. “Union is a respectable lady in her seventies, and no longer the little sister of the United States.”said a diplomat at the start of the week. Getting lost in comments and analyzes on the results of the American election is pointless, says French President Emmanuel Macron. “The question is: ‘Are we ready to defend the interests of Europeans?'”he insisted Thursday, speaking of“a decisive moment for Europe”.
Several elements, however, cast doubt on the ability to rise to the challenges posed by the Trump Administration. Especially since the political, economic and geopolitical context of the Union is not very favorable.
1. Trump has more friends in the Union
“We will be faced with a transactional approach, where interests will prevail over values”warned the (outgoing) head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, Friday morning. “The best recipe for the Union to survive (sic) is to be more united and to build a more sovereign Europe capable of ensuring its own security.”added the Spaniard. The cohesion of Europeans, however, appears less than when Trump was elected in 2016. At the time, the prospect of Brexit had closed European ranks. What would it be like today if the American president were to play EU member states against each other? In addition, there are now more leaders in Europe who are ideologically close to Donald Trump.
When Orban whispers in the ear of Trump strategists: “Play by your own rules”
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, host of the summit, had promised to open the champagne in the event of his ally’s victory. Slovakian Robert Fico is also delighted with Donald Trump’s victory. Just like Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders, whose PVV party is the largest in the Dutch government. The post-fascist president of the Italian Council, Giorgia Meloni, for her part, maintains a close relationship with the American billionaire Elon Musk who campaigned fervently for Donald Trump.
Furthermore, the election of Mr. Trump comes at a time when the leaders of Germany and France, the two largest member states of the Union, are both politically very weakened on the scene. domestic and, therefore, European policy. President Macron finds himself without a presidential majority and with a government led by a Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, whose survival depends on the goodwill of the National Rally (far right, also trumpophile). Chancellor Olaf Scholz saw his three-color coalition (social democrats, greens and liberals) explode this week and will face early elections in March. This situation does not work to Europe’s advantage.
Olaf Scholz puts an end to the German government’s ordeal with words of rare violence
“The United States will try to divide us. They always have”predicts Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo. Who is pleased that Ursula von der Leyen, and the President of the European Council (at the end of his mandate), Charles Michel, have each already had contact with the President-elect of the United States. For Mr. De Croo, it is not a problem for national leaders to open their own channel of discussion with the Trump administration anyway, “as long as we carry the same message”. The fact is, despite their divergent opinions on President Trump, there are convergences of views between EU leaders. Even Viktor Orban endorses the notion of “European sovereignty” – even though he would not have exactly the same vision as his peers.
2. Fear of a trade war
The former president of the European Central Bank, then of the Italian Council, Mario Draghi, was invited to Budapest for a debate on his report on European competitiveness. The Italian pleads, vigorously, for the EU to take ambitious measures quickly, to avoid “the slow agony” of its economy, in the process of being definitively abandoned by the United States and China. “The sense of urgency has been greater since this week”slipped the Italian.
Why is the European economy stalling?
The EU expects Donald Trump to impose tariffs of up to 20% on European products exported to the United States, as he promised during his election campaign. As for goods, the trade balance of transatlantic trade leans towards the Union which last year posted a surplus of 156 billion euros. “We know that Trump will give a lot of weight to innovative sectors and will protect traditional industries which are precisely those where we export the most in the United States. We will therefore have to negotiate with the American ally in a spirit of solidarity, so as to also protect our European producers”warns Mr. Draghi.
Fear of the impact of American measures on their economy could lead Europeans to disunite to protect this or that sector of a Member State from the wrath of American tariffs. Alexander De Croo warns against any such attempt: “For everything related to commerce, you have to be very clear” : the only European interlocutor of the United States, “what’s Ursula” ; competence in this area was reserved to the Commission. It also began, even before the election of Donald Trump, to prepare a possible European customs response.
3. European support for Ukraine weakened in the long term?
Europe fears that the United States will significantly reduce, or even abandon, the military and financial support it provides to Ukraine. The Union, alone, would not have the means to compensate for this decline or withdrawal.
Charles Michel: “If Trump is elected, Europe will not be a bird for the cat”
Remaining close to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Viktor Orban is a critic of European support which, according to him, only prolongs the suffering of war, without prospect of victory. “History is accelerating, the world will change”he declared Thursday, during the closing conference of the CPE summit, organized by Hungary. Then to break into a long plea for the establishment of a cease-fire in Ukraine, for “ give the warring parties the space and time to communicate and begin to negotiate peace.”.
Viktor Orban may say that there are more and more people in Europe who think like him, this is not the position of the Union, which believes that only kyiv can decide that the time has come to discuss with Moscow. And it is certainly not that of Ukrainian President Zelensky who, a few minutes later, on the same platform, criticized the Hungarian’s proposal. “This is not sustainable. And the worst part is that it’s irresponsible.” he snapped, insisting that the slightest concession would strengthen Russia.
The real resistance test of European support for Ukraine will come (perhaps) next year, when Donald Trump is inaugurated, depending on the attitude he takes. “We must convince the Americans that this is no longer just a European war.”argues Alexander De Croo, recalling that Russia benefits from the military support of North Korea, and the support, less and less tacit, from China, which the United States considers its number 1 rival.
