This situation is particularly linked to restrictions on the entry of goods into the state – from the rest of the country and neighboring Bangladesh – or to the reduction in agricultural production, in a context of escalation of fighting between groups ethnic rebels and the junta in power since 2021.
More than 2 million inhabitants threatened with famine
Rakhine State “could face imminent acute famine,” insists the UNDP, which estimates that local food production will only be able to cover 20% of needs by March/April 2025.
Rice production “collapses” (282,000 tonnes in 2023 to cover 60% of the population’s needs; projection of 97,000 tonnes in 2024, sufficient for 20% of the population) and at the same time, trade of this basic food element is “almost at a standstill”. A threat for “more than two million people of famine”, out of approximately 2.5 million inhabitants.
The situation has particularly deteriorated since November 2023, when the offensive by ethnic minority groups (including the Arakan Army, Arakan being the old name of Rakhine) against the Burmese army extended to the State Rakhine, notes the UNDP. Between this date and July 2024, the price of rice soared, for example +944% in the town of Maungdaw, or +404% in the capital Sittwe.
So “without urgent action, 95% of the population will find themselves in survival mode”, and with commercial and humanitarian routes closed, the State “risks becoming a totally isolated zone of profound human suffering”, assures the UNDP.
In these circumstances, “the total collapse of the economy seems inevitable”, warns the report, thus evoking the risks of further reinforcing tensions and insecurity. He is concerned about certain particularly vulnerable populations, notably the Rohingya, a stateless and persecuted Muslim minority, as well as displaced populations. According to the UN, Rakhine State had 511,000 displaced people in August 2024, compared to 196,000 in October 2023.
