During the campaign, there was a lot of talk about the famous Project 2025, emanating from an ultra-conservative think tank – which the president-elect claims not to adhere to.
Its roadmap would rather be that developed within another think tankthe America First Policy Institute. This was established even before the end of Donald Trump’s first term, in 2020, under the aegis of Brooke Rollins, his domestic policy advisor, and Larry Kudlow, his director of the National Economic Council.
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Immigration
Goodwill if not obsession of Donald Trump, immigration has proven to be a politically promising subject. Associated Press exit polls show that the issue was in the Top 3 among voters in swing states. It will be up to the Department of Homeland Security to implement the promised “mass deportations.”
“On day one, we will launch the largest deportation operation in American history” declared Donald Trump during the campaign, aiming “eleven million people” who are living in the United States illegally. Stephen Miller, a former advisor during his first term and a hard-liner on immigration, spoke of the use of spaces “large-scale gathering” near the border.
Justice
This 2024 election is historic, among other things, because the elected president is under indictment, including one for “conspiracy against the State”, relating to the events of January 6, 2021. The Supreme Court, dominated by six pro judges -Republicans, including three appointed by Donald Trump, have already carved out a tailor-made immunity for him.
The choice of the next Attorney General of the United States (or Minister of Justice) will therefore be crucial. He will have the power – and the mission – to help Donald Trump put an end to the criminal proceedings against him and, perhaps, to prosecute his enemies, as he has repeatedly announced. Donald Trump intends this time to bring the Department of Justice into line, with the support of elected Republican officials.
Among the names circulating is that of Jeff Clark, Donald Trump’s co-defendant for trying to overturn the 2020 results of the Georgia election. His loyalty is certainly acquired and he has demonstrated his willingness to bend the law in the service of the President.
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Civil service
Since his first term, Donald Trump has wanted to downsize the federal state, while simplifying procedures and regulations. He has his designated champion: “We have a new star, a star is born: Elon!” he said from his HQ in West Palm Beach, Florida, to thank Elon Musk, a major financial supporter in his race for the White House.
On September 5, Donald Trump announced that he wanted to create a government commission to audit the entire federal government, on the advice of the richest man in the world. This should do “recommendations for draconian reforms”. At the risk of a conflict of interest for Musk, whose companies last year were promised $3 billion in nearly 100 different contracts with 17 federal agencies.
Finance and commerce
During his first term, Donald Trump implemented his America First slogan by withdrawing from major international agreements and launching a trade war with China.
This time he promises a real blitzkrieg commercial customs duties of 10% to 20% on all imports and up to 60% for those from China. He said it again and again: the word (English) tariffs (customs duties) is “the most beautiful in the dictionary”. They will target both Chinese and European products.
Behind the art of Trump’s formula, there is the thought of Robert Lighthizer, 77, former trade representative during Trump’s first term. He could return to the same position, or even that of Treasury Secretary (Minister of Finance), it is said. The title of his book No Trade is Free (“No trade is free”, Harper&Collins, 2023, untranslated) serves as a manifesto.
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Alliances
During his first term, Donald Trump withdrew from the Iranian nuclear agreement, thus hastening the end. Without informing the United States’ allies, he concluded an agreement with the Taliban in Doha in February 2020, at the end of which the United States committed to a withdrawal within fourteen months. A task that fell to the Biden administration, in complete improvisation. The Taliban immediately regained power in Kabul.
For sovereignists and illiberals, particularly in Europe, the election of Donald Trump seems a godsend. His binary and transactional vision of world affairs is cause for concern in Ukraine and Taiwan in the face of the desires of Russia and China. NATO members will once again be brought back to their financial contribution.
Donald Trump is threatening at least not to intervene in the event of aggression by a member of the Atlantic Alliance, or even to withdraw. But can the United States let China or Russia gain the upper hand? The answer will partly depend on the profile of the Secretaries of State and Defense. We are talking about the return of Mike Pompeo to the Secretary of State, of Bill Hagerthy, a Republican senator who refused aid to Ukraine, or of veteran Mike Waltz, a fierce opponent of China.
Climate
During his first term, Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from the Paris climate agreement. Joe Biden put them back there. A new withdrawal is assured, undoubtedly quickly. The president-elect who calls climate change a “hoax” has promised to recover the fund allocated to climate policy from the Biden administration. North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, nicknamed “the Energy Czar”, is tipped to take charge of the Energy Department. In his state, Burgum promoted innovative energies without eliminating the exploitation of oil and natural gas.
