Europe: The far right emerges strengthened from the European elections

The European elections, marked by a surge of the far right in several countries, caused a political earthquake in France on Sunday, without upsetting the major balances in Brussels.

The first estimates confirmed a progression of the nationalist and radical rights, and a bitter setback for the leaders of the two main powers of the EU, the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the French President Emmanuel Macron, who announced a dissolution of the Assembly French.

360 million voters

This election, where more than 360 million voters were called to the polls to nominate 720 MEPs, has taken place since Thursday in a climate weighed down by a gloomy economic situation and the war in Ukraine.

The centrist “grand coalition” of the right (EPP), social democrats (S&D) and centrists (Renew Europe), within which compromises are traditionally forged in the European Parliament, should retain the majority.

According to projections published overnight from Sunday to Monday by the institution itself, the EPP would win 189 seats, the S&D 135 and Renew Europe 83, or 404 seats out of a total of 720. The Greens would drop to 53 seats ( compared to more than 70 currently).

The RN triumphs in France

In France, the National Rally led by Jordan Bardella dominated the vote with more than 31.5% of the votes, far ahead of President Macron’s Renaissance party (15.2%), according to estimates from polling institutes. The RN would thus win 31 of the 81 French MEPs.

In Germany, despite the latest scandals which have splashed its head of list, the far-right AfD is credited with second place with 16.5-16% of the votes, behind the conservative CDU-CSU (29.5-30% ), but far ahead of the ruling coalition parties, Social Democrats (14%) and Greens (12%).

In Italy, the head of Italian government Giorgia Meloni, who made this election a referendum on her person, seems to have succeeded in her bet: her post-fascist party, Fratelli d’Italia, comes in first with 25 to 31% of the votes. votes, according to various exit polls.

Divided in the European Parliament

In Austria, the FPÖ emerged victorious from the vote (27%), and the Dutch, first to vote on Thursday, clearly strengthened Geert Wilders’ far-right party. In Poland, the centrist pro-European party of Prime Minister Donald Tusk arrived ahead of the populist nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, but the latter maintains a high score and the extreme right of Konfederacja, very Eurosceptic, will not send no less than six MEPs in Strasbourg.

However, the far right remains divided in the European Parliament into two groups (ID and ECR) whose rapprochement remains very uncertain due to their significant differences, particularly on Russia. We must also take into account the gains of certain forces among the non-registered, such as the AfD. Also not registered, the Fidesz party of Hungarian nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban comes in first position but records a clear decline compared to 2019.

“Far-right voices cannot be added”

“The voices of the extreme right and the sovereignist right cannot be added together, this will limit their direct weight in the legislature,” Sébastien Maillard, of the Jacques Delors Institute, explains to AFP.

“But the brown wave, striking in France in particular, will inevitably permeate the political climate in which the Commission will act and the majority will have to take it into account,” he adds. “Failing to influence directly, the extreme right will be able to influence insidiously,” believes the expert.

While MEPs adopt legislation in concert with member states, the radical right could make itself heard on crucial issues: agricultural policy, immigration, climate objectives, environmental measures to which they are fiercely hostile, etc.

“The EPP is the most powerful political group (…) We will build a rampart against the extremes of left and right, we will stop them,” assured Sunday the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, from the EPP, and candidate for reappointment. She will have to obtain the approval of the leaders of the Twenty-Seven and then a favorable vote from MEPs – who in 2019 only gave her their confidence by a very narrow majority (nine votes).

“Ready to negotiate”

During the election campaign, Ursula von der Leyen courted Italian leader Giorgia Meloni, in whom she sees a suitable, pro-European and pro-Ukraine partner – to the great dismay of the liberal and socialist allies of the EPP, but also of the Greens.

“Will we support Ursula von der Leyen? It’s too early to tell. Very clearly, we are ready to negotiate,” but on condition of excluding any rapprochement with Giorgia Meloni, argued the environmentalist leader for the Europeans, Bas Eickhout. It makes the deepening of the Green Deal “a very important element” of the Commission’s future program, even though the EPP is extremely reluctant to do so.

Giorgia Meloni, who presented herself as head of the list in this election, reaffirmed for her part that she wanted to “defend the borders against illegal immigration, protect the real economy, fight against unfair competition”.

Giorgia Meloni also strongly supports aid to Ukraine – unlike Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban: very critical of Brussels, the nationalist leader is also increasing attacks against NATO, accusing it of leading to Alliance countries in a “global conflagration”.

The divisions of the far right on the attitude to adopt towards Moscow could complicate negotiations in the EU at a time when the Twenty-Seven seek to strengthen their defense industry while struggling to release the necessary funds.

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