All Americans are called to the polls, but it is the votes of citizens of a handful of key states that will tip the scales and are the most coveted by the candidates. Here’s a look at the seven states expected to decide who the next president is.
Posted at 1:36 a.m.
Updated at 5:00 a.m.
Pennsylvania
Number of electors: 19
This is the biggest prize of the evening in terms of key states: 19 electors. Joe Biden, originally from Pennsylvania, won in 2020, which allowed him to reach the White House. But, four years earlier, in 2016, it was Trump who obtained the majority of votes in the state. The latest polls show Harris and Trump neck and neck in Pennsylvania. Both candidates regularly visit the state, and their supporters are now pulling out all the stops to help people get to the polls on Election Day.
North Carolina
Number of electors: 16
For several electoral cycles, Republican presidential candidates have been considered the favorites to win North Carolina and its 16 electors. In 2020, Donald Trump managed to snatch a victory there, with 1.3% ahead of Joe Biden. This year, Trump enjoys a 1% lead according to the site Fivethirtyeight, which aggregates the latest polls. This fall, the hurricane Helene wreaked devastation in western North Carolina, and a disinformation campaign about the federal government’s response there was waged by the Republican candidate and his acolytes.
Georgia
Number of electors: 16
For a Democratic candidate to dream of winning Georgia was unthinkable not so long ago: the last one to do so was Bill Clinton in 1992. But, in 2020, Joe Biden had the upper hand with a margin of 0 .23%, or 11,779 votes. An event which led Donald Trump to call the Georgia Secretary of State to ask him to “find 11,780 votes”, which is one of the elements which led to accusations against Trump and his allies. This year, Trump has a two-point lead in the latest polls, but the Democrats are leading a strong field operation to allow supporters of Kamala Harris to vote in large numbers.
Michigan
Number of electors: 15
Once again, the Great Lakes State is highly coveted: historically, the winning candidate in Michigan has also won the White House in 9 of the last 12 presidential elections. In recent years, it is mainly Democratic candidates who tend to win the 15 major voters. In 2020, the state was part of the “blue wall” that allowed Joe Biden to win. He received almost 3% more votes than Trump. But nothing is decided this year. The average of the polls listed by the site Fivethirtyeight places the candidates tied.
Wisconsin
Number of electors: 10
“Tied candidates”. This is how the site Fivethirtyeight describes the presidential race in the key state of Wisconsin. Biden won the state in 2020 by the uncomfortable margin of 0.63% of the vote. This year, it’s a toss-up between Trump and Harris. Last summer, Trump reportedly told congressional Republicans that Milwaukee, Wisconsin’s most populous city, was a “horrible city.” But that does not appear to have had an impact on his popularity in the state where four out of five voters are non-Hispanic whites, and where independent voters are highly coveted by both parties.
Arizona
Number of electors: 11
Normally, Arizona should not be a key state: apart from a victory by Joe Biden with a lead of just over 11,000 votes (out of 3.3 million votes cast) in 2020, the state elects usually the Republican candidate. This year, Kamala Harris’ campaign is toying with the idea of repeating the good performance of the outgoing president. The latest polls show either that the candidates are neck and neck, or a slim advantage of one percentage point for Donald Trump. A State to follow on the evening of November 5.
Nevada
Number of electors: 6
Democrats generally succeed in winning in the state of Nevada. Barack Obama finished first there in 2008, then in 2012. Hillary Clinton then Joe Biden won in 2016 and 2020 respectively, but by a much closer margin. This year, the candidates are tied in the state where the 5.5% unemployment rate, while extremely low historically, is on an upward trajectory. About 30% of the state’s population is of Hispanic origin, and it is unclear whether Kamala Harris will be able to attract enough votes from this community to win.
