Between great Republican confidence and Democratic anxiety, who will win? | US elections 2024

We may have the best slogans and lines of attack against our opponent, but the ABC of a successful electoral campaign is to seek by all means the voters where they are: on the ground. “Campaigns matter,” say the regulars. On this point, there is a definite advantage for Kamala Harris.

Whether in Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, or even Pennsylvania, when we talk to Republican supporters, they all have the same answer: Trump will win, without a doubt. Like their candidate, they project an image of strength and great confidence in Donald Trump’s campaign style.

If he loses, it will be because the Democrats will necessarily have cheated. The excuse is used ad nauseam since 2020 and continues to make headway among the Trumpists who feed on messages from their leader who continues to hammer home this feeling of victimization which punctuated his 2020 and 2024 campaigns.

However, when we ask these same supporters what they actually did to give a boost to the campaign on the ground… you could hear a pin drop.

Ask Democratic activists, and they will tell you that hope is certainly there, but with a reservation rooted in the nightmare they experienced in 2016 when, against all odds, Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton.

However, they are quick to add that they have been going door to door in recent weeks and will continue to do so as long as they have time. The objective is simple: to combat this almost existential anxiety of the blue party which is part of the DNA of these activists, always anxious to have made the right choice of candidate, to have chosen the right strategy and to have dared to take this risks courting supporters of the opposite camp.

On this point, Kamala Harris took the great risk of the big ideological gap, by bringing into her campaign Republican tenors like Liz Cheney, former senator from Wyoming, proud daughter of Dick Cheney, former vice-president of a hawkish administration.

In trying to appeal to moderate Republicans sickened by Donald Trump’s rhetoric, some progressives have frowned, worried about the party’s ideological drift to the right. At the same time, what is the alternative? Stay at home and not vote, at the risk of letting Donald Trump pass? The campaign has made its choice, with complete certainty.

A candidate too teleprompter

Kamala Harris’ campaign is not perfect, far from it.

The highly scripted, repetitive speeches lacking emotion left little space for improvisation. Having attended a few of his rallies, the supporters were present in numbers, eager to listen to him, but in the end, there was this impression of a small taste of too little. A bit like they got more or less what they paid for.

Some would have liked Kamala Harris’ entourage to be inspired by the series The West Wing where Martin Sheen played the fictional American President, Jed Bartlet. In the cult series, his main advisor, to stimulate his support in public opinion, challenges him to be himself and to let Bartlet be Bartlet.

Let Kamala be Kamala would have been more of a boost, who knows. Well supervised, she avoided playing the racial and gender card in this election. A probably wise decision given the polarization in this race.

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An austere tone that is less successful?

The Republican camp had no problem there since Let Trump be Trump is a lot easier, Donald Trump’s personality being what it is. Which, for his supporters, who follow him from life to death, is perfect, because this is how his political rise has worked.

The problem is that we are no longer in 2016 nor in 2020. His incendiary and provocative speeches are delivered with an energy different from previous campaigns in front of an audience acquired in advance, certainly, but less numerous, as evidenced by certain gatherings with more sparse attendance.

There is, however, no meaningful effort on the part of Democrats to attract new, disappointed voters. And this speech marked by declinism in an America with a thriving economy risks putting off certain citizens when the time comes to vote on Tuesday at the latest.

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To help him mobilize the electorate, Donald Trump was not able to count on these famous celebrities like Taylor Swift, Beyoncé and other stars of popular culture.

Although the real contribution of these senior pop figures remains to be demonstrated in a campaign, the Republican candidate had to make do with stars from the right-wing ecosystem, including Elon Musk, a few influencers like Charlie Kirk and Eric, of Donald Jr and his daughter-in-law. (Note the notable absence of support from his daughter and former adviser to the president, Ivanka.) celebrities polarizing to the one-dimensional political universe which are unlikely to greatly change the situation.

The return of the red mirage?

Do you remember this red wave announced in 2022 during the midterm elections? In the months leading up to the election, many pundits and politicians believed that Republicans had enough momentum to make significant gains at the state and federal level, enough that there could be talk of red wave. In the end, it did not take place.

In recent weeks, we have seen a certain revival of support for Donald Trump in the polls. Even if we are still within the margins of error, where does this slight upward trend come from?

Some observers have pointed the finger at polling houses which have flooded the population in order to influence the average collected by poll aggregators in their calculation. Some probes were allegedly sponsored by right-wing groups, close or not to the Trump nebula.

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A wave of surveys by companies such as Trafalgar Group, Rasmussen Reports, Insider Advantage and others have tended to produce results much more favorable to Republicans than those from traditional pollsters.

However, survey aggregators emphasize that their average models have held up thanks to their calculation methodology. The fact remains that certain companies like Atlas Intel, self-proclaimed the most accurate pollster of 2020, have published their survey on key states.

Atlas Intel is the only pollster that puts Donald Trump in the lead in all these swing states. Stranger, in the Senate race in Arizona, the same house gives Republican Kari Lake the winner against Ruben Gallego, the Democrat.

The Republican candidate, who lost the race for governor in 2020, and who is still contesting this result, is nevertheless given the loser in all other polls by a comfortable margin. Does Atlas Intel know something that we don’t know by giving Trump a lead everywhere?

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No wonder the Republican candidate shares this firm’s polls on his social media accounts. Even less surprising is that he is taking a dig at the Iowa poll published two days ago and which, surprisingly, gives a 3-point lead to… Kamala Harris. The height in a rural Republican state!

Fake survey Trump was quick to say. A poll, even published by one of the most respected pollsters in the country, does not make an election, but no one saw this strange survey coming. Should Republicans be worried about a ripple effect in neighboring key states?

So, will we talk about a wave or a red mirage like in 2022?

The Polymarket case

Often cited by Trump supporters as gospel for expected results on November 5, Polymarket is a decentralized platform where individual or institutional brokers can bet on notable future events, such as the presidential election. American.

This year, these bets have become the most active market on the platform with more than $3 billion staked for the Harris-Trump battle. The company is funded by venture capital from investors including Peter Thiel, a conservative libertarian who has made significant donations to American right-wing figures and causes.

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Polymarket is in no way a survey with a reliable and recognized methodology, they are just predictions with money at stake. Still, these numbers favorable to Trump add up to a sort of trend.

And all this will give Trump ammunition in the event of defeat. Look at the polls, they were favorable to me, the election is riggedsome already hear it said.

« Campaigns matter »

By presenting himself as l’underdog (the neglected) of the campaign, Kamala Harris took out the card of the one we give as a loser with the idea that the effective democratic machine would be set in motion to boost the morale of the troops and mobilize the vote in all layers of society.

Result? This presence on the ground is palpable and gives a clear advantage to the candidate.

Much more than the Republican side which counts on the Trumpist base, very present in the rallies, but little represented in the mobilization field.

Even if, two weeks ago, Polymarket bettors expressed confidence in a Trump victory with 66% chances against 34 for Kamala Harris, on the eve of the election, this prediction fell to 54.4%. against 45.5%. Do they feel that the tide is turning?

If Donald Trump lost on Tuesday evening, the rule “ Campaigns matter » would be verified. In his Mar-a-Lago lair, Donald could then have a draft answer tomorrow evening.