Kamala Harris leads in several polls, but not by much
The latest opinion survey on the American presidential election was published on October 30 by The Economist et YouGov. She gives a slight lead to Kamala Harris who would total 49% of voting intentions, against 47% for Donald Trump.
The gap is smaller in the survey of Reuters in partnership with Ipsos. The latter, carried out between October 25 and 27, places Kamala Harris in the lead with 44% of voting intentions, followed by Donald Trump with 43%.
The same is true in the investigation of CBS News where the Democrat is ahead of the Republican by one percentage point (50% against 49%).
On the other hand, in the survey of CES (Cooperative Election Study) in collaboration with YouGovthe margin between the two candidates is much greater, since Kamala Harris collects 51% of the voting intentions and Donald Trump 47%.
While in the investigation of New York Times a you Siena Collegecarried out between October 20 and 23, the Republican and the Democrat are tied (48%-48%). Just like in the survey of CNNcarried out on the same dates (47%-47%).
Finally, in the study of Wall Street Journalit is Donald Trump who leads the dance with 47% of voting intentions, against 45% for Kamala Harris.
What are the polls saying in swing states?
It is often said that national polls only give a partial indication of the possible outcome of the election. Indeed, each American election is played out mainly in seven undecided states. The winner of the presidential election is the one who manages to tip the balance to his side in the greatest number of these “swing states”.
And if we look at the polls in these states, we see that Kamala Harris is leading in four of them: Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. The other three (North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona) seem more committed to the cause of its rival. But nothing is decided, given the very narrow gap between the two candidates. Everything is still possible in each of these seven states.
Find the details of the polls in the seven key states of the American presidential election
Are polls really reliable?
Often criticized, the polls are still eagerly awaited by voters eager to know how the race for the White House is evolving. However, these opinion surveys should always be taken with a grain of salt. We remember in 2016 that the institutes had failed to perceive the rise of Donald Trump, unanimously giving Hillary Clinton the winner. “It was the worst performance of the institutes in the last forty yearscontinues Professor Campbell. Some have since announced method changes, but we do not yet know if they will be reliable.says W. Joseph Campbell, professor in the school of communication at American University (AU) and author of a book on the use of surveys.
First results already available
According to data collected by CNN, Edison Research and Catalist, 43 million people from 47 states (out of 50) have already voted in the 2024 American presidential election. This figure is lower than that recorded in 2020 during the previous election. which pitted Donald Trump against Joe Biden. The election which took place during the Covid crisis resulted in a record number of early and postal votes, namely around 158 million.
At present, the balance leans more in the camp of Kamala Harris, if we are to believe the report published by CNN, since 39% of the votes cast are Democratic. However, this is a setback compared to 2020. At the time, Joe Biden had managed to win 45% of early votes at this stage of the campaign, distancing his rival who totaled 28% of early votes. In 2024, the gap has narrowed considerably since the Republicans have won 35% of the votes cast so far.
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