Erie County, in the swing state of Pennsylvania, has become a barometer of the US presidential election since it votes overwhelmingly for the winner.
A small territory with a fine nose. Erie, the northernmost county of Pennsylvania, has made a reputation for itself throughout the American presidential elections by systematically voting for the winning candidate for around fifteen years.
Long considered a Democratic stronghold due to its industrial heritage, the county voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, before supporting Republican candidate Donald Trump in 2016. In 2020, the county returned to the Democratic fold.
Previously, voters supported Democratic candidates Al Gore and John Kerry in 2000 and 2004, but Republican George W. Bush won the election on both occasions.
A county neither blue nor red
For the November election, the city of Erie is expected to support Kamala Harris and rural areas Donald Trump. Suburbs such as Millcreek, where Biden was favored four years ago but which Trump won in 2016, are hotly contested.
More than 200,000 voters were registered for Erie County in the 2020 election and 137,494 cast ballots according to state figures. That is to say a participation of around 68%, above the national average.
In the final months of the 2024 election campaign, Democrats represent 46% of registered voters, ahead of Republicans with 40% and independents with 14%. But the mix of urban, rural and residential suburbs has never allowed the county to be either Republican or Democratic land.
Erie County, like the rest of Pennsylvania, will play a crucial role in the allocation of the 19 major electors in this key state, capable of swinging the vote on November 5. Aware of its importance, both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump came to a meeting there.
François Blanchard with AFP
