The party in power for thirty years in South Africa and fervent support of the Polisario, the African National Congress (ANC) suffered a historic setback by being deprived for the first time of an absolute majority in the National Assembly during the legislative elections which were held on Wednesday. Could this twist in the South African political scene have an impact on relations with Morocco? Here are the explanations from an expert in international relations.
One of the rare political groups to support the Polisario in Africa, the ANC, has just been inflicted with a historic defeat. “For the first time since 1994, the ANC suffered a setback by winning only 40% of the votes. It is 41 seats short of reaching the majority threshold set at 200. This is a drop of 71 seats compared to the last elections”indicates to Hespress Fr, the professor of public law at the Faculty of Legal and Political Sciences of Ibn Tofaïl University, Azzeddine Hanoune.
The ANC, continues the professor of public law, “has had the habit since the end of the Apartheid regime of drawing dividends from the fact that it was the main actor in the fight against this regime. The transformation of the movement into a party allowed the latter to draw on itself the legitimacy of the movement”. Nearly 30 years later, “the party is beginning to suffer an erosion effect, due not only to the wear and tear of time, but also to errors in governance and the misconduct of a good number of party officials”, underlines Hanoune. Indeed, he explains, “In recent years, there have been a number of corruption and other scandals stemming from the actions of a good number of historical figures of the party. Thus, the current President Cyril Ramaphosa, who is seeking a new mandate, was accused of having tried to conceal the theft of half a million dollars which was hidden at the bottom of a sofa on his farm. His predecessor Jacob Zuma was also at the center of a financial scandal linked to bribes linked to arms sales contracts..
On the economic plan, “South Africa has experienced a slowdown in growth in recent years. In 2022, the growth rate will not exceed 1.9%. An acute social crisis is also decried by the population which suffers from endemic unemployment and glaring inequalities. points out Hanoune, who believes that “this setback teaches us about the limits of legitimacy resulting from even very just struggles”. The exercise of power “raises expectations that only the memory of a just struggle could satisfy. It is necessary to renew legitimacy and desecrate political movements”affirms the professor of public law.
What implications for relations with Morocco?
Would the defeat of the ANC be a precursor to a possible shift in Pretoria in favor of healthy relations with Morocco? This party, it should be remembered, is an ardent supporter of the Polisario, and its leaders have recently intensified their actions towards the separatist entity in their efforts aimed at hindering Morocco. In Hanoune’s opinion, “the outcome of the negotiations for coalitions to form the government will be decisive in determining the new directions of this State”. Regarding relations with Morocco, the public law professor says he does not expect “to a big change”. “A scenario of alliance with Zuma’s party would only worsen the unfavorable attitude of this country. An alliance with the Democratic Alliance (liberal party) could push the ANC to moderate its positions”he explains.
In any case, and whatever the new political configuration in South Africa, if this country persists in its hostile actions towards Morocco, we must remember what the head of the Moroccan diplomacy: “we must not give South Africa more than its real importance and weight on a continental and international scale”.
