Long the most populous country in the world, China lost this title in 2023 to India. And if the country still has 1.4 billion inhabitants, the downward trend is expected to continue over the coming decades. A phenomenon that the Chinese government hopes to counter. This is why the Council of State presented measures this Monday to boost the birth rate in the country. Objective: build “a new culture of marriage and procreation”. To do this, he wants to encourage “respect for procreation, marriage at the appropriate age and sharing of responsibilities between parents regarding childcare”.
The proposed measures include improving maternity insurance, maternity leave, subsidies and medical resources for children. The cabinet also called on local governments to budget for childcare services and levy preferential taxes and fees for them.
In addition to maternity, the measures also affect other areas, such as education. Local authorities are urged to strengthen financial support for students from disadvantaged families, with a mention of “gradual expansion of the scope of free education”. Emphasis is also placed on employment and housing, this second sector going through a deep crisis in China. Local authorities are being asked to provide more help to families with several children to buy housing, but also to strengthen the protection of pregnant women and new mothers among workers.
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Young people shun marriage and children
These measures adopted follow an investigation carried out in October by Chinese health officials. Although its results are not yet known, its aim is to understand the factors governing attitudes towards procreation. Because almost 10 years after putting an end to its “one child” policy, China is struggling to increase its birth rate.
As a reminder, the country introduced this limitation in the early 1980s to stem its then exponential population growth. The average number of children per woman in China was in fact 7 during the 1960s. In 2022, this rate stood at 1.05, according to figures given to AFP at the start of the year by the independent demographer He Yafu, saying he is basing himself on official figures. This rate must be at least 2.1 for a population to renew itself and maintain its numbers.
“China’s population decline trend is fundamentally impossible to reverse” because the younger generations “are generally no longer willing to have many children”, Estime He Yafu.
Among the main reasons: the high cost of raising a child. In 2019, this cost, from birth to the age of 18, amounted to 485,000 yuan (62,000 euros), according to the Beijing firm YuWa Population Research. Or nearly seven times the country's gross domestic product (GDP) per capita that year. A much higher level compared to the United States (4.11) or Australia (2.08) for example.
Other explanations: the growing distrust of younger generations towards the institution of marriage, a necessary step in China before having a baby. The growing number of women pursuing higher education is also postponing the age of first pregnancy. So much so that the slogan “no marriage, no children” has become popular on the Chinese internet.
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This demographic crisis is leading to an aging of the Chinese population. Last year, China saw a significant increase in its senior population. Nearly 17 million additional people are over the age of 60, according to official statistics. This age group already represents more than 20% of the population. And this proportion is expected to rise to almost a third by 2035, according to the research group Economist Intelligence Unit.
Which is not without consequences. Particularly on the economic level: China has long relied on its vast workforce to stimulate its growth. This trend also unbalances the retirement system. So much so that the Chinese government decided in September to gradually raise the retirement age from 2025. Another problem with this demographic crisis: the social aspect. Because tradition requires in China to take care of elderly parents, to a greater degree than in Western societies. However, most couples today are made up of two adults who are only children. The latter therefore have a lot to do, having to take care of their four elderly parents.
In this context, the Chinese government presented at the beginning of the year a major seniors plan to cope with the growing need for services in the sector (retirement homes, entertainment, home care and even meal delivery). In September, he also pledged to improve care for the elderly. It remains to be seen whether all these measures, in favor of young and old people, will be sufficient to break this vicious circle.
(with agencies)
