In Tunisia, a presidential election without much suspense where the outgoing Saied is the favorite

Tunisians elect their president on Sunday in a vote in which outgoing head of state Kais Saied is the favorite and which arouses little enthusiasm among a population more concerned by its economic difficulties than by “the authoritarian drift” denounced by the civil society.

Polling stations will be open from 8:00 a.m. (7:00 a.m. GMT) to 6:00 p.m. (5:00 p.m. GMT) to accommodate 9.7 million registered voters, according to the electoral authority Isie, which expects preliminary results “at the latest” on Wednesday.

In the cradle of the democratic revolts of the Arab Spring in 2011, only two candidates – considered by analysts as second-baiters – were authorized to face Mr. Saied, 66, out of initially 17 applicants, rejected by Isie for alleged irregularities.

The first is a former member of the pan-Arab left, Zouhair Maghzaoui, 59, and the second, Ayachi Zammel, a 47-year-old liberal industrialist, unknown to the general public but imprisoned upon confirmation of his candidacy at the beginning of September.

In less than a month, this former MP, supported by left-wing forces and figures from the former parliamentary majority, was sentenced to 14 years and two months in prison for suspicion of false sponsorships, in three separate proceedings. His team called on citizens to “go to the polls en masse”, urging Isie “not to manipulate the vote of Tunisians”.

Carrier of a sovereignist left project similar to Mr. Saied whom he supported until recently, Mr. Maghzaoui denounced before the election “a record equal to zero” of the outgoing power, also calling for a mobilization of voters.

– “Locked” ballot –

The president “has locked the vote” and should “win hands down”, believes the expert from the International Crisis Group, Michaël Ayari.

The very selection of candidates was contested for the high number of sponsorships required, the imprisonment of known potential candidates, and the ousting by Isie of the president’s strongest rivals.

Mr. Saïed, elected in 2019 with nearly 73% of the vote (and 58% participation), was still popular when this constitutional law specialist with the incorruptible image seized full powers in the summer of 2021 , promising order after years of political instability.

Three years later, many Tunisians criticize him for having mainly devoted his energy to settling scores with his opponents, in particular the Islamo-conservative party Ennahdha, dominant in the decade of democracy following the overthrow of dictator Ben Ali in 2011. .

An “authoritarian drift” of power has been denounced since 2021 by Tunisian and foreign NGOs and the opposition, including leading figures such as the leader of Ennahdha, Rached Ghannouchi, and at the other end of the spectrum, Abir Moussi , nostalgic passionnaria of the Ben Ali era, are in prison.

All criticize the dismantling of the checks and balances established in 2011 and the stifling of civil society with the arrest of trade unionists, activists, lawyers and political columnists.

According to Human Rights Watch, “more than 170 people are currently detained for political reasons or for exercising their fundamental rights.”

– “The crossing” –

Nearly 800 activists marched in Tunis on Friday to denounce “trampled freedoms”, calling for a boycott of a “masquerade” election.

“The abstention promises to be strong” because “citizens are not very passionate about this election”, like at the end of 2022, the beginning of 2023, when the participation rate had reached only 11% in the legislative elections, predicts the expert Ayari.

Mohamed, a 22-year-old unemployed graduate, met in a working-class neighborhood, does not feel concerned by the vote: “it’s useless.”

“The collapse in participation is the strongest indication of the discouragement of Tunisians towards their leaders,” Pierre Vermeren, French expert on the Maghreb, told AFP.

Saying he wants to “save Tunisia from traitors” under foreign influence, President Saied still enjoys “significant support among the popular classes”, according to Mr. Ayari, but he is “criticized for his inability to get the country out of a deep economic crisis”, marked by plummeting purchasing power.

On Thursday, Mr. Saied called for “voting massively” because, he promised, after “a long war against the forces of conspiracy” having “infiltrated numerous public services and disrupted hundreds of projects, the crossing will begin ” towards “the construction of a new Tunisia”.

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