Last week was marked by cold and several nights of frost. Frosts in spring are common, between “April don’t uncover you by a thread” and the Ice Saints. The problem this year is that it was particularly hot in the first months. And that’s not normal. What explains these temperature variations and what are their impacts on nature, the economy and our lives?
El Niño, La Niña
These records are not new. In recent years, they continue to be blown up. An acceleration due to climate change and amplified by the El Niño phenomenon. Specialists predict that the current episode of this cyclical reversal of currents in the Pacific Ocean could end this summer.
We will have to see a little later this year to understand which hypothesis will be the correct one. Either we move towards a neutral episode, which will not have a cooling effect on the climate, or we move directly towards a “La Niña” phase which would have a cooling effect.
Whatever the answer, this oscillation will add up to another curve which continues to climb, that of warming, caused by the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere. Its concentration breaks records every year and efforts to reduce it are insufficient.
Thermal stress
2023 is also the year with the most days of extreme heat stress. These are the times when the body can no longer regulate itself. However, we know that prolonged exposure to this stress increases the risk of disease. The heat also has consequences on our mental health, as explained by Philippe Conus, head of the CHUV general psychiatry department, in La Matinale on August 22. ”We see that there is more demand in emergency rooms, more hospitalizations. Recent research has shown that, since the 1940s, conflicts between various countries have increased with temperature. There is a link between temperature and irritability.”
From an economic point of view, the International Labor Organization estimates that the heat could cause a loss of productivity equivalent to 80 million jobs.
And you in all this?
These extremes embody what scientists have been hammering home for years: efforts are not enough to keep global warming below +1.5 degrees. These extreme weather episodes will be repeated with consequences in terms of health and the economy. For example, more than 500 million additional people would find themselves in moderate or severe food insecurity by the middle of the century.
Claire Burgy
