The new Prime Minister is the president's historic ally, but their checkered relationship and the chaotic beginnings of the Béarnais at Matignon portend strong turbulence within the executive.
In the last minutes of his first interview as Prime Minister, François Bayrou, criticized for his complicated beginnings at Matignon, gets lost in his explanations. Questioned Thursday, December 19 on France 2 about the stories that flourished in the press about his incredible appointment and the standoff engaged with Emmanuel Macron, the boss of the MoDem digresses first on the geopolitical context, before returning to the initial subject. “We had a discussion in which I tried to show him that I thought we should do things differently, that's the choice he made at the end of [cet échange]“closes the Béarnais.
Without denying, therefore, having forced the hand of the president who had initially decided not to appoint him. “He was immediately aware of having won a test of strength against Emmanuel Macron, to whom he said: ‘I joined you to do big things, not small things’”reports a close friend of the mayor of Pau (Pyrénées-Atlantiques).
These tumultuous beginnings reflect the checkered relationship that the two men have maintained despite their political proximity since François Bayrou joined Emmanuel Macron during the 2017 campaign. “François is intellectually impressed by the man, as if he finally had someone up to the task in front of him, with a vision that corresponds to his own.says Bruno Millienne, spokesperson for MoDem. There is something of the order of the spiritual son, they have both found each other.”
A relationship of mutual respect, but which has never made François Bayrou a vassal of Emmanuel Macron, quite the contrary. “He has a certain admiration for Macron. Now, it’s François Bayrou, smiles MoDem deputy Erwan Balanant. He has enormous experience and has been through a lot of political challenges.”
“François Bayrou does not have the same vision of the world as the macronie, that of the start-up nation and the theory of the first rope. He is attached to the republican idea of meritocracy and to the question of social justice .”
Erwan Balanant, MoDem députéat franceinfo
The past seven years have been far from having been a long, quiet river between the two men and their troops. Pension reform, immigration bill or even government reshuffles… At regular intervals, Béarnais and MoDem deputies have made their voices heard, and sometimes sent fierce criticism against the macronie.
In February, François Bayrou did not have harsh enough words to denounce, in the midst of the constitution of Gabriel Attal's government, the “derivative” towards a “managerial technocracy” of an executive that he had refused to join. “He wants to be Prime Minister again, or even President again. He’s really a shopkeeper”tackled, at the time, a Macronist collaborator. In September, during the formation of Michel Barnier's government, repeat: the MoDem troops looked grim. “They are doing their usual thing, they want additional positions”sighs a Renaissance executive.
Today, the Bayrou troops proudly recall their independence from the president and his teams. They do not fail to emphasize, for example, that the Prime Minister's chief of staff, Nicolas Pernot, is close to Béarnais. Clearly, the Elysée did not impose a name, as was often the case for former heads of government. “The power is no longer at the Elysée: it is not a distrust of the president, it is an institutional reality”observes Erwan Balanant.
“It is not because we are in an alliance that we are Playmobil, we have already said that. It is the DNA of the MoDem.”
Bruno Millienne, MoDem deputyat franceinfo
An indocility representative of the personality of the mayor of Pau. “He has this absolute feeling, anchored in him, that in any case, he has a destinybook Bruno Millienne. He always saw in advance what was going to happen and what we should have done.” Other former MoDem elected officials are less lyrical. “He told me one day: ‘I am immortal’.”
The Béarnais, “with a hot temper” according to a close friend of the president, is known for being tough in business. “I had some pretty crazy negotiations with him: he slams the door, threatens, insults… It’s very violent old school, contrary to the round image he has”reports a macronist. “It’s going to go badly”laughs an influential member Together for the Republic (EPR). “Anyone who doesn't know [François] Bayrou will not be disappointed with the trip.”
If François Bayrou cultivates his independence, the president must reinvent the functioning of the executive couple. Will he make life easier or more complicated for his Prime Minister, twenty-seven years his senior? For the moment, the Head of State is preoccupied with the serious crisis affecting Mayotte after the deadly passage of Cyclone Chido. But he took the time to receive the head of government three times since his appointment.
This does not prevent the presidential entourage from distancing itself, or even further, from the Prime Minister. A skirmish with speckled foils thus broke out between François Bayrou and the Elysée over the timetable for forming the government, the presidential palace ironically saying “ready” to receive the copy from Palois.
For several members of the presidential camp, this reflects a form of distrust from the Elysée towards Matignon. “The Elysée is going to war, the president is incapable of ceding power. It’s not going to be a great connection”predicts a MoDem elected official, joined by Richard Ramos, deputy of the same party.
“I have no doubt that at the Elysee, there are people who do not want him to succeed. Even in our camp, there are some.”
Richard Ramos, MoDem deputyat franceinfo
In the eyes of certain members of the presidential bloc, the appointment of François Bayrou should leave its mark on the relationship between the two men. “I don't know Emmanuel Macron too well, but I know enough about him to know that the injury [de la nomination] will be unforgivableevokes a familiar Béarnais. Emmanuel Macron will never forgive him and will exploit the weaknesses of the MoDem, but François Bayrou is used to sailing in rough weather.”
Others close to the head of state instead invite him to step back to “to redo the cherry while François Bayrou takes the blows”image one of them. Especially since, according to one of his relatives, “the Prime Minister will be very fluent on foreign policy”usual preserve of the President of the Republic. “There will be no conflict between him and the Elysée on NATO, war in Ukraine or Africa”unlike Michel Barnier who wanted to make it a shared domain, estimates the same source.
However, it is on domestic politics that François Bayrou is expected to turn the corner, with a situation more complicated than ever in the National Assembly. Insoumise France will vote for censorship against him, the rest of the left does not support him, the right has made its demands to help him and the National Rally reserves the right to press the button again to bring down the government.
The former Minister of Education and Justice can only count on a very weak base. “An autonomous Prime Minister is not necessarily a strong Prime Minister, with room for maneuver”analyzes the constitutionalist Benjamin Morel.
“François Bayrou is radically weakened, he does not have a majority.”
The constitutionalist Benjamin Morelat franceinfo
Despite everything, the Prime Minister is trying to act by increasing consultations. On Thursday, he proposed opening a several-month discussion on pension reform. “Bringing people of good will together is the fight of his life. It is easy to criticize, but more difficult to build, and he is a builder”assures a relative, according to whom “the country needs” of this personality type.
Beyond Mayotte, the urgency of the moment concerns the very delicate situation of public accounts. On France 2, Thursday evening, the Prime Minister defended his method on the 2025 finance bill. “I will not use the 49.3, unless there is an absolute blockage on the budget”he promised.
Like Michel Barnier, François Bayrou could be overthrown during the outcome of a budgetary text after a motion of censure. “It will last until the end of the year [2024]but it won't survive the winter!predicts a ministerial advisor. “His method is bad. For it to work, we have to talk about the budget, not participation in government. Otherwise, he will beat Michel Barnier's record [du gouvernement le plus éphémère de la Ve République]. We would have to hold meetings every day with the Bercy teams and groups to arrive at a budget.”explains an EPR deputy to France Télévisions.
Barely appointed, the Prime Minister is already in danger. What would happen if the Béarnais experienced the same fate as Michel Barnier? “If François Bayrou burns, he burns everything and will take everyone with him”fears a collaborator of the presidential bloc. “If he failed quickly, the President of the Republic would suffer the consequences”continues a close friend of the head of state.
“Emmanuel Macron has an interest in ensuring that things don’t collapse. Otherwise, we will turn again to the Elysée.”
A close friend of the presidentat franceinfo
“For Emmanuel Macron, capitalizing on a failure by François Bayrou would amount to asking the question of his resignation. For the executive, it would be ‘whoever loses, losesestimates constitutionalist Benjamin Morel. La France insoumise and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who have been trying for several months to push the head of state to leave, would take advantage of this to increase the pressure a little more. And the National Rally, increasingly offensive, could also be tempted to restart an early presidential campaign.
