The presentation of the budget, which does not suit a majority of deputies, could put an end to the Barnier experience at Matignon. Even Emmanuel Macron makes the prediction, according to Le Parisien.
Michel Barnier could well return to the ski slopes of Savoie sooner than expected. The Prime Minister, who regularly tells the media that he accepted his appointment without harboring any personal ambition, could give up his apron before the end of the year. For what ? Because the adoption of the 2025 budget, on which he has been actively working with his government since his arrival at Matignon, does not find consensus among parliamentarians. Moreover, according to information from Le Parisien, even Emmanuel Macron confides behind the scenes that the “government will fall”, banking on censorship of the RN, “sooner than we think”. Information officially denied by the Elysée, but which spreads the rumor that the president is already preparing for the post-Barnier era.
It must be said that it is quite clear to everyone: Marine Le Pen is now aiming to bring down the government over the presentation of the budget. The president of the RN deputies, interviewed on RTL on November 20, had posed imperatives to Michel Barnier, demanding in a rather vague manner that the “purchasing power of the French be preserved”. This Monday, November 25, the noose tightened. Marine Le Pen spoke in the morning with the head of government and she did not seem to have obtained any guarantees: “Michel Barnier appeared to me to be at the same time courteous and firm in his positions. I repeated the lines reds of the RN”, she said, considering as very probable the hypothesis that the RN would vote on the motion of censure in the event of the use of 49.3. “We will see if our words have gained ground, but nothing is less certain,” she said.
The threat is now concrete, especially since the position of all the NFP parties – including the PS – is unanimous: with a motion voted by the RN, the Assembly is arithmetically able to bring down Michel Barnier.
The president of the RN deputies now knows she is at the center of the game. But her demands are very numerous: “Tapping businesses and retirees is unacceptable, […] the increase of 6 billion that he is planning on the price of electricity is unacceptable for us”, she said. And his demands can give the government a cold sweat: the slightest impact on the power of purchase by the French would be considered a red line Given the 40 billion in savings – including measures on health reimbursements – and some 20 billion in taxes presented by the Bercy ministers, there seems to be no doubt. that the power purchasing power of the French will be reached. “It’s a red line. And if this red line is indeed crossed, well we will vote for censorship,” insisted Marine Le Pen.
Mr. Barnier confirmed in mid-November in the columns of Ouest-France that he would “probably” hold his government accountable by having recourse to article 49.3 of the Constitution, which would allow adoption of the budget without a vote in Parliament. “The problem is not that of 49.3. The problem is what will be in the budget. Will Mr Barnier respect the commitment he made to ensure that the groups “Can the opposition recognize elements in its budget that seem essential to them?” asked Marine Le Pen on November 20.
What victory for Marine Le Pen?
Can the Prime Minister still convince Marine Le Pen in the coming days? To do this, it would be necessary to offer her pledges and some measures that she could present as a political victory. “He is spoiled for choice,” a political supporter from Michel Banier tells Politico, who mentions the counter-budget as “very reasonable and encrypted” of the RN. According to information from BFMTV, the far right will decide during the budget vote in the Joint Committee (CMP), which will try to bring together deputies and senators after December 12.
The fact remains that Marine Le Pen can decide on the political future of the tenant of Matignon, but also on the way in which the next chapters of the political soap opera will be written. Michel Barnier's ministers now have their eyes glued to the clock: it is likely that the Prime Minister will put an end to the debate, anticipating a blockage, by using article 49.3, undoubtedly at the end of the discussions in the CMP. And then he will no longer have control.
If the RN causes the fall of the government, it will most likely satisfy many voters and activists of its party, many of whom do not understand the RN's tacit support for Michel Barnier. The political crisis caused could also serve the interests of Marine Le Pen, who would change political priorities at a time when her conviction for embezzlement of public funds is expected at the beginning of January.
20:29 – “As long as I have the same ability that I had 50 years ago, I will be here”
“Why do you want me to resign?” retorted Michel Barnier this Tuesday evening on the set of 8 p.m. from TF1 as tensions around the budget increase, suggesting the possibility of government censorship. “This goes far beyond my own condition,” continued the Prime Minister, adding: “I am of a certain age that I do not remember, I have the same capacity to be enthusiastic as to be indignant during my first election. As long as I have the same capacity that I had 50 years ago, I will be there.”
Earlier, the Prime Minister had conceded that “the moment is very serious” since it is “the nation's budget which is in question”, while ensuring that he was not surprised by the situation. “During this time [de négociations du budget, ndlr.]in Paris, in microcosm, people make little sentences. They would do better to devote their energy to the French rather than worrying about their future,” he argued. In the event of censorship, “we will have to resume discussions, there will be a fairly serious storm on the financial markets. We are already borrowing very high,” he also warned.
18:16 – Emmanuel Macron denies the comments reported by Le Parisien.
“The Élysée denies that such comments reported here in quotation marks were made. The government is at work and the country needs stability.”, wrote the services of the Presidency of the Republic in a press release this Tuesday. This document sent to the press adds that “the President of the Republic is not a commentator on current affairs”. Le Parisien nevertheless maintains its information, indicates the editor-in-chief, ensuring that several witnesses have corroborated the allegations reported.
16:45 – “The government will fall”, Emmanuel Macron confided to his entourage
According to information from Le Parisien, the head of state made some confidences with parliamentarians and former ministers on Monday evening in the Elysée gardens, after a decorations ceremony. “The government is going to fall. She (Marine Le Pen) is going to censor it at some point and sooner than we think,” the president clearly declared to certain guests, as several witnesses reported to Le Parisien. The analysis is shared by several tenors of the macronie, including a minister still in place. “We are going to be censored. Why wouldn’t a demagogic party censor an effort budget?” thus anticipates a member of the current government.
