For decades, scientists have struggled, unsuccessfully, to accurately predict solar flares, the bursts of light on the Sun that can propel charged particles throughout the solar system. A research team has now discovered warning signs in the solar atmosphere that could be a game-changer for predicting these cosmic events. Here’s how a new approach could provide better protection for our technologies and astronauts.
Using NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory, a team led by heliophysicist Emily Mason of Predictive Sciences Inc. in San Diego, California, observed flickering loops in the crown solar. These structures, called coronal loops, rise from active regions of the Sun, where solar flares also originate.
The researchers analyzed the brightness of these loops in extreme ultraviolet light around 50 strong solar flares. They found that brightness variations were much more pronounced over regions where a flare would occur, compared to areas where no flare occurred.
Data Analysis
Emily Mason reported that extreme ultraviolet light above active regions appears fluctuate erratically several hours before an eruption. This discovery, presented at the 245th meeting of the American Astronomical Society (January 15, 2025), could improve our understanding and ability to predict dangerous space weather conditions.
«We found that extreme ultraviolet light above active regions fluctuates erratically for a few hours before a solar flare“, explained Mason. “The results are important for understanding flares and could improve our ability to predict dangerous space weather.»
Comparison with Other Methods
Other researchers have attempted to predict solar flares by studying magnetic fields or looking for stable trends in other features of the coronal loops. However, Mason and his colleagues believe that measuring brightness variations in coronal loops could provide more accurate warnings. This method would report impending eruptions 2 to 6 hours in advance, with an accuracy of 60 to 80%.
-« Many of the predictive schemes developed so far still predict the probability of eruptions over a given period and not necessarily the exact timing said Seth Garland, a team member at the Air Force Institute of Technology at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio.
Implications Futures
Researchers hope their findings about coronal loops can one day be used to protect astronauts, spacecraft, power grids and other infrastructure from harmful radiation associated with solar flares. An automated system could thus monitor changes in brightness in the coronal loops in real time and issue alerts.
« Previous work by other researchers has reported interesting prediction indicators noted study co-author Vadim Uritsky of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, and Catholic University in Washington, DC. We could build on this to arrive at a well-tested and, ideally, simpler indicator, ready for the move from research to operations. »
Image caption: NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory captured this image of coronal loops above an active region of the Sun in mid-January 2012. The image was taken in the 171 angstrom wavelength of extreme ultraviolet light. Credit: NASA/Solar Dynamics Observatory
Article : ‘131 and 304 Å Emission Variability Increases Hours Prior to Solar Flare Onset’ / ( 10.3847/2041-8213/ad94dd ) – NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center – Publication dans la revue The Astrophysical Journal Letters
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