War in Gaza | Will the agreement between Israel and Hamas hold?

Israel has been at war for more than 70 years. What should we hope for at the end of the agreement with Hamas, particularly heartbreaking for the hostages and prisoners who will remain behind? Interview with Sami Aoun, professor emeritus at the University of Sherbrooke and director of the Observatory on the Middle East and North Africa of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair.

Between Wednesday and Thursday, Israeli strikes killed 81 people, according to the Hamas Ministry of Health. Can we believe in a complete ceasefire, especially since the one with Lebanon in November subsequently gave rise to several strikes?

The ceasefire agreement negotiated with Lebanon provided that Israel had the right to carry out strikes if it perceived a threat, for example from the movement of Hezbollah fighters towards the border. There is no such thing in this agreement. I have more hope that the agreement will be respected initially, but if there is any slippage, it would be more likely to occur at the end of the first six-week phase.

But it seems to be getting complicated. Again on Thursday, nothing was signed…

These are negotiations, it is not surprising that last minute questions remain. The important thing is that the framework is set and approved by the United States, Qatar, Egypt and largely by the Israeli government.

This first phase is particularly heartbreaking for families. Thirty-three hostages should be released, but around sixty remain behind…

It’s terrible for families. In the negotiation, Hamas was careful not to confirm to Israel which hostages were dead and which hostages were alive. In some cases, remains will be returned to families. In any case, Israel has ensured that it will not release any prisoners involved in the October 7 attacks and that it will not carry out a complete withdrawal before the release of all captives.

The war has left 30,000 to 78,000 dead in Gaza, and 70% of the buildings there are destroyed, according to different estimates. Israeli families don’t know whether to plan a funeral or a reunion. Who can claim to have obtained any gain after these 15 months of war?

Hamas, which has taken both infants and people over 80 hostage, looks very bad today. In the streets of Gaza, it is not the Hamas flags that are waved, but the Palestinian flag, above all. Palestinians criticize him for a unilateral and poorly calculated decision, on October 7, 2023, motivated by his alliance with Iran.

For its part, Israel has lost its image as a victim, which has been tarnished by its disproportionate and devastating strikes which are the subject of investigations in global legal bodies. The country is no longer seen as a morally reliable ally that the West can be proud to associate with.

Does Hamas manage to save face?

Hamas can boast of having forced Israel to release a good number of prisoners, between 1000 and 1600, while its goal, on October 7, 2023, was to empty Israeli prisons, where there are more than 10,000. It will be able to say that he managed to avoid the possible plan to transfer populations from Gaza to Sinai. Hamas is weakened, but it has not been dismantled and it manages to maintain a hold on the territory of Gaza.

And Israel?

Donald Trump wanted this agreement, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu needs the Americans. Without them, the State of Israel would be deprived of approximately three-quarters of the foundations of its power. Israel especially needs the Americans against Iran. It is from this country, with its ballistic and probably nuclear arsenal, that the great threat comes. Let us also remember that it was Netanyahu and Trump who signed, in 2020, the Abraham Accords on the normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan, then between Israel and Morocco. Trump now wants to expand these agreements to Saudi Arabia.

Gaza is on the ground. What have we planned for its governance?

Initially, at the initiative of Egypt, a community support committee will be created, made up of the Palestinian Authority and Palestinians not affiliated with Hamas. Arab, European and other observers will be added, whether Scandinavian, American or of other nationalities. Israel has also warned that it will not leave Gaza until all the hostages, “the living and the dead”, have returned.

The two-state solution, widely seen as the only guarantee of peace, has made no progress.

In Israeli society, support for the formation of a Palestinian state is in major decline. Before October 7, some 55% could envisage this two-state solution. Today, it only receives the support of 23% of Israelis. But it is likely that if we return to some stability, Israelis will consider the benefits of living in peace with their neighbors. Furthermore, note that to consider joining the Abraham Accords, Saudi Arabia first requires a clear commitment to the creation of the Palestinian state.