Syria: everything Russia could lose after the fall of the Assad regime

Faced with the lightning offensive in Syria, Russia could only note the overthrow of the Assad regime. And the fall of its interests in the country. With the arrival of Islamist rebels to power in Damascus this Sunday, December 8, Vladimir Putin loses a geopolitical, economic and military ally. A setback whose contours are beginning to emerge.

A door to the Mediterranean closes

It must be said that the master of the Kremlin remained powerless in the face of the advance of rebel groups. (new window) However, Russia was, along with Iran, the main support of the former Syrian president. An alliance in the name of which it has intervened militarily in Syria since 2015. In almost ten years, the Russian system has therefore had time to expand in the country. Helicopters, armored vehicles, radars… so many weapons left behind by the regime forces at the time of the offensive. Several videos appearing on social networks show abandoned symbols of the Russian military industry. For example, at least four MiG-21 fighter planes left at the Hama airfield fell into the hands of the rebels, as did a helicopter and surface-to-air missiles.

• Read also

  INTERVIEW – “Singular disillusionments in the months to come”: what future after the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria?

Beyond just equipment, the Moscow army had numerous strategic military locations, including an air base at Hmeimim. Infrastructure over which Russia was sovereign, it played a vital role in Moscow’s efforts. This is where the Russian army “projected its power not only inside Syria, but also throughout the region, including Libya, Sudan and other parts of Africa”as explained in a note (new window)the Soufan Center, an independent research organization on global security issues. The airfield was used in particular for the deployment of mercenaries from the Africa Corps, the new name for the Wagner militia. “It’s a big defeat for Russia,” who loses a “logistics capacity”, confirms General Dominique Trinquand. Former head of the French military mission to the UN in New York, he however explains on LCI that this damage is “replaceable”. (new window)

Which is far from being the case for another base, that of Tartous. As crucial militarily as economically, this infrastructure created in 1971 by an agreement between the USSR and Hafaz al-Assad, first representative of the Assad dynasty (new window)is the only Russian naval base outside the country’s borders. While it was able to accommodate up to 50 boats during the Cold War, it would now be almost empty. The satellite images visible below demonstrate that none of the Russian warships based in Tartous were in the port on December 9.

A military entry point, but also an economic one. In 2019, Russia signed a 49-year contract to manage it. Ambition: to make it a key logistics hub for trade and energy transit to Europe and the Middle East. A project that is now compromised, which makes the loss of this maritime base a “major failure” for Vladimir Putin, according to General Dominique Trinquand.

Proof of the importance of these bases, Russian diplomacy affirmed this Wednesday to be “and contact” (new window) with the new Syrian authorities, whom they were bombing just three days ago. “Issues related to securing these facilities are extremely important,” pleaded Dimitri Peskov to the press, indicating that the Kremlin must now “be based on the realities on the ground” in Syria.

Especially since this exchange zone was not Russia’s only financial interest in Syria. Moscow had also invested heavily in key sectors of the Syrian economy hoping for long-term returns. Among the main losses are the gigantic phosphate deposits, essential to the global production of fertilizers, which guaranteed Russia a presence on the global agricultural market. In 2018, Stoytransgaz Logistics, a Russian company, won a 50-year contract giving it the right to receive 70% of the revenue from the country’s largest phosphate deposits. (new window)subject to sanctions by the European Union.

The image of our country will entirely depend on the results of the special operation

Alexander Kots, Russian propagandist

Finally, the defeat for Russia is not only strategic, it is also symbolic, as the contrast between 2015 and 2024 is striking. Ten years ago, Russian forces allowed the Syrian army to reverse the course of the war and regain control over the jihadist rebellion. This time, Moscow could do nothing, or almost nothing. Sign that Russia is “exhausted by the war in Ukraine”, as Maxime Lefebvre explains to us (new window)professor of international relations at ESCP. “Moscow does not have sufficient troops, resources, influence and authority to intervene effectively by force outside the former USSR”confirms Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies in Moscow. In a daily editorial Kommersantthis expert emphasizes that the assault “prolonged” against Ukraine, which has been mobilizing hundreds of thousands of soldiers and the majority of Russian military capabilities for almost three years, “weakened” Moscow’s strike force.

The events in Syria have therefore not only brought down 50 years of the Assad dynasty but also cracked the image of “indestructible Russia”. They are proof that not only cannot Russia defend its allies, but they have turned a pillar of economic and military expansion in the Middle East into a financial pit. Not enough to shake Moscow. Faced with what appears to be a symbol of the strategic failure of the master of the Kremlin, the Russian narrative constructed by Putin’s relays is that of a country focused on Ukraine. They assure that only this war exists in the eyes of Moscow. “The image of our country will entirely depend on the results of the special operation which is more important than anything else at the moment”summarized Alexandre Kots, Russian propagandist followed by more than 500,000 people.