La Croix: How to explain the resurgence of tensions in the Aleppo region?
David Rigoulet-Pink : Aleppo, Syria’s second city and former economic capital, has been the subject of fierce fighting in recent hours between Sunni Islamist insurgents and the forces of the Damascus regime who razed part of the city, in this case East Aleppo. , in the fall of 2016. The “Battle of Aleppo” ended with the capitulation of the rebels in December 2016 and, following an agreement, their expulsion to the Idlib governorate. It was the resumption of a symbolic city for the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
But today the latter finds himself in a difficult situation again. Power is weakened by the multiple strikes carried out by the Israeli air force against the presence of pro-Iranian proxies, including Lebanese Hezbollah and other militias supervised by the Revolutionary Guards. It is not unreasonable to think that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham/HTS (“Levant Liberation Organization”, heir to Jabhat al-Nosra “Al-Nusra Front” itself formerly derived from Al-Qaeda), intends to take advantage of this situation of regime weakness to trigger the most violent clashes since March 2020 in the northwest of the country. But it is still too early to know all the ins and outs.
Should we expect intervention from Iran?
D. R-R. : The pro-Iranian proxies, supervised by the Revolutionary Guards, are the primary supporters of the Bashar al-Assad regime, which allowed him to remain in power during the civil war until today. They have long been present in the region and particularly in Aleppo, where clashes are currently taking place, alongside the Syrian armed forces in the fight against jihadists. Aleppo airport, which regularly serves as a platform for transferring Iranian arms to Lebanese Hezbollah, has been a favored target of the Israeli army on several occasions, notably twice in October 2023 and again by the following.
It is therefore no coincidence that we learn of the death of a general officer of the Revolutionary Guards, Brigadier General Kioumars Pourhashemi alias Haji Hashem, who fell in the fighting taking place near Aleppo and which more than 240 victims. This Iranian footprint in Syria represents a major problem for Israel, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reflected in his speech relating to the ceasefire validated between the Hebrew state and Hezbollah in Lebanon: “Bashar al-Assad is playing with fire” by allowing this Iranian presence to continue. It is plausible to think that this offensive by HTS and its allies, mobilizing all the attention of pro-Iranian proxies and the Revolutionary Guards, is not to displease Israel to the extent that it prevents them from to deal with the flow of arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The jihadists announced on Thursday November 28 that they would cut the road linking the capital Damascus to Aleppo. What is their interest?
D. R-R. : It is a strategic axis: the M5 highway, which connects Aleppo to the capital, is vital because it usually allows the city to receive reinforcements from Damascus. By blocking this road, it jeopardizes their transportation and further isolates the country’s second city, which is on the verge of falling into the hands of the jihadists. This also worries Russia a lot: Moscow certainly provides its air fire support but its forces are mainly mobilized today in Ukraine, the Russian government has urgently asked Damascus to regain control of the situation in the north. of Syria.
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