why are the prices of these raw materials soaring?

Torrential rains and diseases

For cocoa, this development is explained by catastrophic harvests in Ghana and Ivory Coast, which supply 60% of the beans sold in the world. Their production was halved due to plantations affected by torrential rains and the diseases that followed.

To compensate for lost revenue, Ghana’s regulator first increased the price of its cocoa by 58% at the start of the year, then by 45% in September. The country expects production to rise again to 650,000 tonnes for the 2024/25 season, although an official from the International Cocoa Organization said he saw it around 500,000 tonnes. Still not up to par with past years.

Coffee is also a victim of climate change. In Vietnam, the world’s leading producer of robusta, excessive heat slows the growth of coffee trees. In Brazil, the leading producer of arabica, it was the lack of rain which led to a drop in harvests. Pressure from international customers for “organic” or labeled coffee also encourages the use of fewer phytosanitary products and makes plantations more susceptible to diseases or pests. As a result, production falls and the price of a tonne of coffee rises.

Rising prices for the consumer

Especially since cocoa and coffee producing countries tend to anticipate the protectionism announced by Donald Trump and the new European regulation on deforestation. From January 1, 2025, a new European standard will require importers to prove that their coffee does not come from recently deforested areas. A virtuous measure on an environmental level but which creates tensions: the land that can be dedicated to plantations is considered a development lever by producers who see global demand growing.

But will consumers continue to drink coffee or eat chocolate if their rarity, and their price, make them luxury products? “Chocolate is tense,” recognizes Dominique Schelcher, boss of U supermarkets. “The Christmas chocolates currently on sale are off to a difficult start because the price has increased by 5 to 6%. And there is a direct impact on consumption. However, it’s a bit of a “soft” product…” The Swiss group Lindt had already announced an increase in prices for its products last March.