American presidential election: “Europe holds its breath” and questions itself

The world's eyes are on the United States. While the results of the American presidential election are still coming in this Wednesday morning, “Europe is holding its breath”, writes the magazine Fortune. Everyone has their own predictions and analyzes on the consequences of the victory of Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, particularly on a geopolitical level, in the context of the war in Ukraine.

On the Ukrainian front line, soldiers keep Russian forces in check with American weapons and ammunition, we can read in the Guardian. Across the country, U.S. air defenses protect civilians from Moscow's missiles and drones. The United States is the country that supplies the most weapons to kyiv by far, recalls the German wavewith a share of 40%, followed by Germany and Poland.

If Donald Trump wins, he would end the war in Ukraine, according to Bart Szewcyk, researcher at the German Marshall Fund, interviewed by Euronews: “One of the possible scenarios is that he stops the delivery of weapons to Ukraine. He will want to conclude an agreement with Vladimir Putin, in defiance of the Ukrainians and the Europeans. He will want to sign a ceasefire and put end the war in Ukraine, on Putin's terms.”

However, a victory for Kamala Harris would probably be greeted by Ukraine with the relief of having a “less bad option”, rather than with overwhelming enthusiasm, analyzes the Guardian. The candidate said she would stand by kyiv until “Ukraine wins this war”reminds him Kyiv Independent.

She is expected to continue – in broad terms – Joe Biden's policy towards the Ukrainians, although, but her powers could be limited by a Congress led by the Republicans, nuance the BBC.

“We hope Kamala Harris wins and supports us,” Inna, a resident of Zaporizhia in Ukraine, told the BBC.

Because Trump's forced peace plan is doomed to failure for several reasons, we can read in an opinion article from Kyiv Post. First – says author Mark Temnycky – because he ignores the opinion of Ukrainians who 73% of them think that Ukraine will end up liberating all its territories occupied by Russia, citing the Carnegie Foundation for international peace.

Then instead of bringing peace to the country, this plan would condemn millions of Ukrainians to suffer Russian occupation and could, according to him, lead to brutality and violence, based on reports from the United Nations and Amnesty International, denouncing rape and torture by Russian soldiers on Ukrainian civilians.

In other words, he concludes, a ceasefire will not bring a peaceful solution to Ukraine. On the contrary, it will lead to increased violence and conflict in the occupied regions.

“Major impact on the entire African continent”

“The policies of the next American administration could also have a major impact on the entire continent” of Africa, we can read in the Foreign Policy magazine.

In 2023, the Biden administration declared that it would invest $55 billion in three years on the continent, recalls BBC Africa. If Kamala Harris is elected, this ambitious investment plan should continue. On the other hand, it is unlikely that if Donald Trump wins, he will want to invest as much money in Africa, notes the BBC.

One of the sources of concern concerns the consequences of the election on the health sector. Asanda Ngoasheng is a political analyst in Cape Town, South Africa. According to her, the election of Donald Trump would be prohibitive, she told France 24 English. “If he returns to power, he will probably roll back everything that has been done on supporting sexual and reproductive health rights on the continent,” she explains. “Many people rely on American support to set up programs, to run hospitals, and other services.”

For his part, Africanews asks: should Africa align with the United States or China? China has significantly established itself in Africa through substantial investments in infrastructure, mining and technology. The country is often presented as a partner for development.

The United States positions itself as a partner focused on governance, democracy and sustainable development. But the United States is often seen as lagging behind China's aggressive strategies, notes the media.

Without giving a definitive answer, Africanews believes in any case that the result of the American election could determine the future trajectory of relations between the United States and Africa and influence trade agreements and the distribution of foreign aid.

Mexican peso falls

In the immediate neighbor of the United States, the Mexican peso has just fallen by 3.2% against the American dollar, reports the press agency Reuters. A devaluation which can be explained by traders' anticipation of a possible victory for Donald Trump over Kamala Harris. The Republican candidate, having promised new customs duties on Mexican imports.

One of the consequences of these elections can be seen in Ciudad Juarez on the border between Mexico and the United States, where South Americans are crowding before the result, like Malby Peña, a Venezuelan interviewed yesterday by Associated Press. “It’s worrying because suddenly, this possibility of going to the United States could disappear. It’s a hope and a door that can close,” she said.

In any case, there are serious concerns about limiting the right to asylum, James Yong of the United Nations refugee agency told AP.