War in Ukraine: possible return of Trump, recession in Germany, deficit in France… is Western aid to kyiv likely to decline?

Indispensable Western aid to Ukraine could soon fall, warns the German research institute “Kiel Institute”, Thursday October 10. “From next year, Ukraine could face a significant aid deficit,” writes the institute in a press release, which lists the military, financial and humanitarian aid promised and delivered to Ukraine since the Russian invasion of February 24, 2022.

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Why could aid fall?

The possible return of Donald Trump in the White House “could block future aid plans in Congress”, warns the “Kiel Institute”.

The latter notes that “Germany recently announced that it would reduce its allocation budget of 50%” and that “other European donors could follow”. Among them, France, which has contributed 16 billion euros since the start of the war, and whose public finances are in the red .

What amounts are we talking about?

Military and financial aid would amount to 59 and 54 billion euros respectively in 2025 if Western donors maintained their level of aid. Conversely, this aid would fall by halfat 29 and 27 billion euros, without new American aid and if European donors aligned with Germany.

How to compensate for the drop in aid?

The drop in Western donations could be offset by other financing levers under discussion, such as military contributions “coordinated by NATO” or “loans” based on “frozen Russian assets”.

These “recently mentioned financing mechanisms are not particularly important. If approved, they would offer valuable assistance, but could only be palliatives”, estimates Pietro Bomprezzi, who heads the “Kiel Institute” team. “These funds would not fully replace the regular bilateral aid that Ukraine needs,” he explains.

How much Western aid does Ukraine receive?

As of August 30, 2024, bilateral aid promised to Ukraine since the start of the war amounts to 397 billion eurosincluding 153.8 billion in military aid, 221 billion in financial aid and 22.3 billion in humanitarian aid, according to the latest figures from the “Kiel Institute”.

The leading donors are the European Union and its members (240.9 billion), the United States (100.2) and the United Kingdom (13.9).

In terms of military aid alone, the EU and the United States are neck and neck, with around 66 billion euros pledged by each. But American aid is arriving more quickly in Ukraine, since 87% of US pledges have already been allocated to specific weapons and equipment, compared to only 66% of EU pledges.