Despite a difficult economic situation, the French real estate market is showing signs of recovery. The Interkab Observatory, which monitors trends via 8,500 real estate agencies, notes a return of first-time buyers, favored by the drop in interest rates and stabilized inflation. However, uncertainties remain with an uneven drop in transactions and prices depending on the region. While the drop in rates and the stabilization of inflation offer hope, goods with unfavorable DPE and resistance from sellers are holding back the recovery. The next few months will be crucial to confirm these initial trends.
A hesitant recovery at least for the moment
The third quarter of 2024 continues tensions in the real estate market. Sales times are stabilizing at 125 days on average, and inventories of goods continue to grow (+13% since the start of the year), due to a drop in transactions. However, Olivier Bugette, CEO of La Boîte Immo, remains confident: “ The drop in interest rates and inflation stabilized at 2% could restore momentum to the market by the end of the year. “. Even if the number of sales agreements continues to decrease (-4% in Q3), the rate of decline is slowing, which gives hope for a more favorable dynamic at the end of the year.
An uneven drop in prices depending on the region
The drop in prices is not uniform across the entire territory. The ten largest French cities show an average depreciation of 2% compared to the previous quarter, but this trend is not generalized. Nearly half of real estate agents (47%) expect a continued fall in prices, and 26% believe it is necessary to revive the market. However, a large majority (94%) of professionals in the sector anticipate a stabilization or slight drop in prices in the short term. “ Interest rates at 3.5% improve the purchasing power of buyers, but sellers continue to resist price adjustments », underlines Olivier Bugette.
First-time buyers and investors: evolving profiles
First-time buyers are making a comeback, representing 20% of buyers compared to 15% a year ago. This revival is supported by lower interest rates and controlled inflation, allowing young buyers to realize their projects. At the same time, second-time buyers continue to weigh heavily on the market, with 44% of transactions, up 4 points year-on-year. The profile of investors is also changing. Today, one in two investors is under 40 years old. Although 70% of investors still focus on long-term rentals, 30% prefer to invest in second homes or mixed-use properties. “ Investors are now seeking a balance between wealth building and immediate personal use », explains Olivier Bugette.
Properties with unfavorable DPE: a market that is becoming more complicated
Properties with an unfavorable Energy Performance Diagnosis (EPD) continue to see their attractiveness diminish. Prices per square meter for this type of property fell by 4% in the third quarter, and sales times increased further, reaching 141 days on average. The number of compromises signed for these goods fell by 19% compared to the previous quarter.
Today, 78% of real estate agents believe that G-rated properties have become very difficult to sell, compared to only 22% who still see investment potential. Energy criteria weigh more and more in purchasing decisions, and this trend seems to be increasing.
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