Real Madrid are playing the penultimate day of the group stage of the new Champions League this evening. Far from the first direct qualifying places, several scenarios remain possible for the Madrilenians.
The reigning European champions have not really shone so far in this Champions under its new format. Three defeats on the clock after 6 days (Lille, Milan and Liverpool) inevitably ejected them into the dangerous zone of the ranking.
As a reminder, the first 8 at the end of the matches in the “championship” phase are directly qualified for the 8th finals, while the teams which finish between 9th and 24th place will go through a play-off, two more matches in looks like the 16th final. Clubs finishing 25th to 36th place are eliminated.
Before hosting RB Salzburg this evening, the Madrilenians are in 22nd place in the table. In this position, everything can happen very quickly. A victory would allow them to regain a few places, just as a defeat would place them in a critical situation.
The Top 8 almost impossible
Given the ranking, it is more than unlikely that Real will manage to finish in the top 8. Even if this remains mathematically possible, it would take a miraculous combination of circumstances for this to happen. Even if they win their last two matches (Salzburg and Brest), the Merengues will certainly not finish in the top group.
-The objective now is above all to secure a place for the play-offs, by finishing as high as possible in the table because the position of each team will count for the establishment of the round of 16. Clearly, the higher a team finishes in the ranking, the more affordable its opponent will be.
The importance of goal difference
In this new Champions League, the ties in the final ranking are decided by the goal average. At this stage, Real have a +1 difference between goals scored and conceded, which doesn’t give them much chance of getting ahead of other teams who finish with as many points as them.
This is why beyond having to win their last two matches, the secondary objective of Ancelotti’s men is to try to score as many goals as possible against Salzburg and Brest, starting this evening with the reception of Germans at the Bernabéu.
