According to estimates from the Energy Research Unit, Algerian oil production is expected to remain at 908,000 barrels per day until the end of 2025 due to a gradual easing of OPEC+ cuts until the end of the year.
In 2024, Algeria occupied the third place as the largest oil producer, member of OPEC, in Africa. With 907 thousand barrels per day, Algeria is ranked behind Libya which produced 1.11 million barrels per day and Nigeria whose production reached 1.41 million barrels per day. Algerian production decreased last year compared to that of 2023 when it stood at 973,000 barrels per day, reports the Energy Research Unit of the Attaqa agency.
This decrease is explained by the commitment of Africa’s largest country to the voluntary reduction policy led by the OPEC+ alliance to support price balance on the oil market. As a reminder, Libya is not affected by these reductions due to the disruptions in the political situation that the country has experienced since 2011.
Algeria’s production reduction quota is estimated at 51,000 barrels per day as part of the OPEC+ alliance’s total reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day since January 2024 and expected to continue until at the end of the first quarter of 2025, and 48,000 barrels per day as part of the voluntary reductions which began in May 2023.
According to estimates from the Energy Research Unit, Algerian oil production is expected to remain at 908,000 barrels per day until the end of 2025 due to a gradual easing of OPEC+ cuts until the end of the year. Algerian production should also return to above one million barrels per day by 2026, with the end of the cycle of voluntary reductions.
-Descending curve
As a reminder, crude production in Algeria was estimated at 1.268 million barrels per day in 2009, and experienced a downward curve year after year to reach 1.09 million barrels in 2016, the year of signature by the member countries of the OPEC of the Algiers agreement aimed at reducing the oil supply on the market. Note that the average production of crude oil in Nigeria, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea changed in 2024, while it fell in Algeria, Libya and Congo.
Nigerian production increased by 7.1% compared to 2023, due to the success in combating the phenomenon of crude oil theft and acts of pipeline sabotage in the Niger Delta. Nigeria aims to further increase production to 3 million barrels per day in 2025.
If the reason for the drop in Libyan production is not the supply reduction policy of OPEC countries, it is due to “the repeated closure of the main oil fields during the year 2024, on background of renewed political divisions and conflicts between the governments of the East and the West. After Nigeria, Libya and Algeria, Congo comes fourth in the ranking of the largest oil producing countries in Africa with 225,000 barrels per day, followed by Gabon with 212,000 barrels per day, and Equatorial Guinea with 57,000 barrels per day.
