China distances itself from Putin

Chinese President Xi Jinping faces major challenges in 2025. A slowing economy and geopolitical setbacks threaten his strategic objectives. Which creates new conflicts, including with Putin.

Patrick Diekmann / t-online

In international politics, a golden rule applies: the more a head of state or government makes public appearances, the more favorable his political situation is. The appearances of Vladimir Putin, head of the Kremlin, have thus increased with the progressive successes of his army in the war in Ukraine. Likewise, Donald Trump, future president of the United States, is already involved in geopolitical affairs since his electoral victory, although he will not officially take office until January 20.

On the other hand, Xi Jinping was more discreet. Apart from a New Year’s address where he reiterated his friendship with Putin and threatened Taiwan with “inevitable reunification”, China remains discreet on major international issues. This contrasts sharply with its status as a superpower claiming to influence world politics. This reserve can be explained by a combination of internal and external problems which weaken Xi Jinping’s position.

The year 2024 has been catastrophic for Xi Jinping. Between a faltering economy, the threat of a new trade war with the United States under Trump, and allies like Putin or Bashar al-Assad who are causing geopolitical disappointments, China has accumulated setbacks. Added to this is an internal power struggle within the Chinese Communist Party. As a result, 2025 can only be better from Beijing’s point of view.

In order not to lose sight of his long-term strategic objectives, Xi is now changing tactics: China is playing the cautious card. Beijing fears Trump and avoids giving him a pretext to intensify the conflict with China. This caution also translates into economic distancing from Vladimir Putin.

China’s economy in difficulty

The economic pressure on China is enormous. China’s economy, once the engine of global growth, faces structural problems: a declining population, rising unemployment and weak domestic demand. The economic recovery plans initiated by Xi Jinping have brought little results. Public debt and deflation are increasing, while investor confidence is crumbling.

Yields on Chinese ten-year bonds have reached a historic low of 1.6%, and foreign investment continues to flee the country. At the same time, a persistent real estate bubble and the stagnation of stock markets are fueling uncertainties. Economic weakness threatens social balance, based on an implicit contract between the CCP and the population: economic prosperity in exchange for political loyalty.

In addition, China is still suffering the effects of a very restrictive health policy during the pandemic. And the economic consequences of the geopolitical upheavals linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are still being felt.

Trump, both threat and opportunity

Despite this gloomy context, one figure gives Beijing hope: Chinese exports have reached a record level in 2024, with foreign sales amounting to nearly $3.6 billion, an increase of 5.9 % compared to the previous year. This increase is explained by the election of Trump, which encouraged Chinese and American companies to conclude deals before the entry into force of new customs taxes. However, these gains could be just a reprieve before another economic shock.

Indeed, the Republican plans to introduce customs duties of up to 60%hitting key sectors such as electronics, textiles or electric mobility.

But trade tensions are not limited to the United States. Many of China’s neighbors and emerging economies, such as Mexico, are seeking to reduce their dependence on Beijing.

Growing tensions with Russia

China’s caution is also observed in its relations with Russia. Fearing becoming a target of Western sanctions itself, China has distanced itself from Moscow and many Chinese banks now refuse to cooperate with Russian financial institutions. Additionally, China is blocking the “Power of Siberia 2” pipeline project, which would have allowed Russia to generate substantial revenues via gas exports. Some Chinese ports, notably in Shandong province, have also reportedly closed their doors to Russian tankers due to American sanctions.

This disengagement illustrates Xi Jinping’s desire to limit the collateral damage to his economy, even if it means complicating his relations with his Russian ally.

Xi Jinping is weakened domestically

Economic and geopolitical difficulties have a direct impact on Xi Jinping’s popularity. In 2024, purges within the Communist Party and the military, including the dismissal of senior officials such as Defense Minister Li Shangfu, revealed significant internal fractures.

To maintain control, Xi Jinping could attempt to present economic sacrifices as essential to achieving his strategic objectives. However, the population seems more and more skeptical of this speech.

The Chinese New Year, marked by the entry into the year of the Snake on January 29, could symbolize a turning point. The coming months will determine whether Xi Jinping can continue to combine his quest for superpower with his authoritarian rule. Otherwise, China could sink into a period of weakness and isolation.

Translated and adapted by Noëline Flippe