The Paris stock market concluded the session at its highest of the day (+2.14%, at 7,634 points), benefiting from the surge in the luxury sector with +9.1% for LVMH, +6.2% for Kering and +4.9% for Hermès.
The sector was comforted by Richemont’s record results – nine-month turnover of 16.2 billion euros, up 3% (+4% at constant exchange rates) – which revived hopes recovery of the luxury sector.
On Wall Street, we observed very little movement on the US indices with zero scores for the S&P500 and the Dow Jones while the Nasdaq lost 0.2%.
On the statistics front, the day turned out to be busy in the United States: US retail sales increased by 0.4% in December, according to the Department of Commerce, or half as much as the +0.8 % sequentially in November.
Excluding the automotive sector (vehicles and equipment), which is sometimes volatile, American retail sales also increased by 0.4% last month, where Bank of America indicated it was expecting an increase of 0.6%.
On the employment front, the Department of Labor announced that it recorded 217,000 new registrations for unemployment benefits in the United States the week of January 6, a figure up 14,000 compared to the previous week.
But activity in the manufacturing sector is recovering vigorously (with a historic increase in the ‘Philly-FED’, the strongest since June 2020) in the Philadelphia region, according to the index calculated by the local Fed, which passes from a revised reading of -10.9 in December to +44.3 in January, its highest level since April 2021.
Among the components of the general index, the indices for new orders (+47 points to 42.9) and current shipments (+39 points to 41) are growing strongly again, reaching highs since November 2021 and October 2020 respectively.
On the inflation side, import prices recorded an increase of 0.1% in December for the third consecutive month, a figure which shows that inflationary tensions now seem better under control in the United States… but be careful, the devil is in the details.
The Department of Labor emphasizes that import prices have not increased by more than 0.1% since April 2024.
However, energy prices increased by 1.4% last month, driven by the rise in oil and natural gas costs, their strongest increase since last April.
The rise in food and drink prices also accelerated in December, reaching 2.8% compared to 1.4% in November.
On an annualized basis, that is to say over 12 rolling months, import prices showed a gain of 2.2%, their strongest increase since December 2022.
On the European side, the inflation rate in Germany measured by the retail price index harmonized with European standards (HICP) was confirmed at 2.8% in December over one year, announced Thursday Destatis, the federal office of statistics.
Little reaction to the publication of the minutes of the December 12 meeting of the governing council of the European Central Bank (ECB), which resulted in a fourth rate cut in the space of six months.
The president of the institution, Christine Lagarde, then expressed her concern about the downward risks weighing on growth in the euro zone.
After their strong relaxation of -10 points the day before on average, the bond markets are trying to find a new balance: the T-Bonds at 10 relax by 5 points to 4.60% our OATs by -3 points at 3.33%, the Bunds of -1Pt also at 2.51% (i.e. an unchanged spread of 82 basis points).
If the latest US inflation figures are reassuring, investors could nevertheless prefer to remain on the defensive while awaiting the inauguration of Donald Trump, scheduled for Monday.
‘It is likely that the 2025 stock market year will really begin on January 20,’ the teams at Cogefi, a Parisian portfolio management company, warned at the start of the week.
Crude prices soared yesterday, with a barrel of light American crude trading just above $80, a first since last summer.
The barrel of Brent fell 2.4%, around $80.5 after testing $82.5 yesterday, for the first time since July 25 and August 12, 2024.
Gold also wakes up thanks to the fall in rates and strongly crosses $2,700/Oz, or +2% in 24 hours towards $2,719.
Finally, the euro remains generally stable against the greenback, at $1.03/E (+0.1%).
In French company news, Alstom indicates that it has signed a new agreement with Metrolinx for the overhaul and modernization of 181 double-deck suburban train cars for the GO Transit service, the public transport service of the Greater Golden Horseshoe region, in Canada.
TotalEnergies announces that its European refining margin indicator recovered to 25.9 dollars per tonne in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to 15.4 dollars in the third, an increase which should be reflected in the results and cash flow of the downstream.
Finally, Stellantis reported on Thursday a 9% drop in its vehicle deliveries in the 4th quarter of 2024, mainly due to the effect of North America where the automobile group is struggling to sell its stocks.
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