The fragile agreement concluded on Wednesday between Israel and Hamas provides for three phases: a truce from Sunday, the release of 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for a thousand Palestinian prisoners, as well as an increase in humanitarian aid.
After more than a year of blockage, indirect negotiations in Doha accelerated as Joe Biden left the White House, replaced Monday by Donald Trump. They led to the formalization of an agreement on Wednesday.
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It will come into force on Sunday, January 19, announced Qatar Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdelrahmane Al-Thani, whose country is one of the mediators between Israel and Hamas.
Three-phase agreement
The first phase of the agreement, which is expected to last 42 days, will see the release of 33 hostages, including women, the elderly and injured people, in exchange for a thousand Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. The Israeli hostages are among 94 captives still held in Gaza since October 7, 2023, among whom 34 were declared dead by the Israeli army.
“A monitoring mechanism to monitor the implementation of the agreement will be set up in Cairo and will be managed by Egypt, Qatar and the United States,” added Mohammed bin Abdelrahmane Al-Thani.
American President Joe Biden, for his part, confirmed that the first phase would last six weeks with a “complete and total” ceasefire, accompanied by an Israeli withdrawal from densely populated areas. Humanitarian aid must also increase during this first phase, which must allow negotiations to reach the second phase. Some 600 trucks of humanitarian aid are expected to enter Gaza every day.
The second phase, which aims for “a definitive end to the war”, must also allow the release of the last hostages, still in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, and a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, Joe Biden further detailed. The third and final phase must be devoted to the reconstruction of Gaza and the restitution of the bodies of hostages killed during their captivity.
However, several elements remain uncertain. In particular, the Israeli government must still give the green light to the agreement. He made it conditional on the resolution of a last minute “crisis” caused according to him by a questioning of “certain points” by Hamas, accusations rejected by the Islamist movement.
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What future for Gaza?
Beyond the implementation of the agreement, the path remains complex. Indeed, despite the announcement of the truce, the Civil Defense of the Gaza Strip reported on Thursday a “strong intensification” of bombings by the Israeli army.
Questioned in La Matinale de la RTS, Sébastien Boussois, doctor of political science and specialist in the Middle East, warned against excessive optimism: “Everyone is getting carried away and is convinced that this is a definitive agreement , that there will be peace tomorrow. We are obviously very far from that.
While Joe Biden had mentioned a possible return of Gazans to their neighborhoods after the withdrawal of Israeli troops, this possibility seems “totally utopian” for the expert. “The return of populations, at this stage, makes absolutely no sense, since there are practically no houses left standing,” he emphasizes.
The agreement also does not resolve the question of the future of the territory, from a political point of view or the reconstruction of the enclave, ravaged by 15 months of war. “Who will rebuild Gaza and above all who will administer it?” asks the expert.
Israel has rejected any hypothesis involving Hamas and is also not keen on the Palestinian Authority, which has limited prerogatives in the occupied West Bank, taking power. “All this leaves a lot of doubt about how Gaza will be able to recover, starting with the Gazans,” concludes Sébastien Boussois.
Emilie Délétroz with the agencies