Economic operators are above all worried and waiting for appeasement since October and the gradual worsening of the diplomatic quarrel between Paris and Algiers. Apart from some recent signals of tension in the wheat trade or delays in the restart of Renault in Algeria, bilateral trade has not suffered any major disruption.
Signals of tension exist on the economic ground between Algeria and the France. The French group Renault has still not obtained authorization to restart its production, even though the French manufacturer had adapted to new Algerian regulations. “ Renault has made major investment efforts to ask its subcontractors to manufacture in Algeria, underlines Michel Bisac, president of the Algerian-French Chamber of Commerce. So, normally, Renault should obtain its authorizations. But the political context is not at all favorable. »
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Poor quality French wheat this year
French wheat has also been shunned by Algeria since October, only one boat has left for this campaign, or 31,000 tonnes, compared to 1.6 million tonnes usually, but for reasons which are far from being solely political. “ The quality was really bad at the start of the campaign, underlines grain broker Damien Vercambre. The port silos began to work it, this is where collaboration between France and Algeria would have been necessary. But the door closed. Algeria has found other suppliers, mainly from the Black Sea. »
Exaggerated concern among operators?
For the moment, the diplomatic quarrel between Paris and Algiers has above all a psychological impact on the operators. “ We don’t see the impact at all today, observes Algerian businessman Slim Othmani. On the other hand, obviously, French companies are wondering about the consequences that this could have on their activities in Algeria. ».
Palpable concern among members of the Algerian-French Chamber of Commerce, which brings together 400 French companies and 2,400 Algerian companies. Its president Michel Bisac nevertheless wants to delay. “ You have to be careful about what is a little bit fantasy and reality. Many companies blame certain blockages on the current situation, but it is perhaps also because there is excess zeal on the part of the Algerian administration. »
« There is no commercial break »
Concretely, there is no major disruption to bilateral trade in 2024, according to the latest customs figures. Algeria’s exports to France fell by 12%, but French purchases of Algerian liquefied natural gas increased. At the same time, France’s exports to Algeria increased by 8%. And these are common annual fluctuations. “ We must be measured because exports and imports from France are erratic, recalls Dhafer Saidane, professor at Skema Business School. There are years when the growth rate of imports and exports is positive, other years when it is negative. As things currently stand, no structural conclusions can be drawn. For me, there is no commercial break. » It is too early, believes the economist, to measure the possible consequences of the Franco-Algerian political dispute.
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