From Spark to Devastation: Lessons from the Los Angeles Fires

In Los Angeles, it was Paris that burned. Paris intramural has an area of ​​105 km². Since the start of the fires in the Palisades district on Tuesday January 7, 117 km² have gone up in smoke. Although we do not know exactly what could have triggered this disaster (fireworks, malfunction of the electrical networks, etc.), the results are already terrible on Wednesday January 25: 25 deaths and more than 12,300 homes. destroyed. In any case, experts are closely examining the Skull Rock sector, where the first fires started.

Who can really blame these monster fires which are ravaging this sprawling megalopolis, the second largest city in the United States after New York? For Donald Trump and Elon Musk, the fault lies with the Democrats. Climate skeptics blame environmentalists. For others, it is due to global warming. WE DEMAIN takes stock of the underlying reasons for this tragedy. If environmental disruptions are not the only cause, they certainly multiply the consequences.

Extreme weather, never seen before in January in Los Angeles

The Los Angeles region is particularly prone to fires, and current weather conditions are exacerbating this risk. In recent years, California has suffered prolonged droughts. According to a study by the Institute of Physics, temperatures in this region have risen by 1.5°C since the start of the 20th century, making vegetation more flammable. Added to this are the Santa Ana winds, which are particularly strong this year. They exceeded 160 km/h in places and could again blow up to 120 km/h in the coming days.

California is currently in the grip of a severe drought. Since May 2024, Los Angeles has only recorded 4.1 mm of precipitation. It’s one of the driest rainy seasons since the 1800s. As of January 2025, soil moisture in the region is in the lowest 2% on record, according to NASA.

Historic drought worsens crisis

Drought makes vegetation particularly flammable. The plants, dried out by months without precipitation, transform into real “matchboxes”. According to UCLA geography professor Glen MacDonald, “The concept of fire season no longer applies in Southern California. You can have a fire any month of the year.”

The combination of arid lands, with parched vegetation, above-average temperatures (over 21°C recorded and humidity of less than 10%) and strong winds fuel the flames and accelerate their spread. According to the National Weather Service, the criteria for “extremely critical” weather were met for the first time in the middle of winter. A “perfect storm”, conducive to the spread of flames.

Natural disasters becoming more and more frequent

These extreme conditions are not new, but their frequency and intensity are increasing. As Douglas Kelley, land surface modeler at the UK Center for Ecology & Hydrology, explains, the combined weather elements allowed the fires to grow and spread much faster than the means deployed to control them. More than 75% of structures destroyed in the United States between 2001 and 2020 were destroyed by similar fast-moving fires.

Experts point to the role of climate change. In a post published on LinkedIn, Benjamin Hamlington, scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, spoke of his Altadena home destroyed by the flames of the Los Angeles fires last Wednesday. This specialist in observing climate change recalls: “These events – often much more devastating in terms of loss of life than this one – occur everywhere and more and more often year after year.” Rather than sinking into pessimism, he calls for “protecting what is most important to us, supporting vulnerable communities around the world and ensuring a decent life for our children. All of this is possible and worth pursuing as best we can.”

The impacts of a changing climate on fires

Global warming is exacerbating the frequency and intensity of forest fires. Since the 1970s, fires in the western United States have burned six times more land and their season is 105 days longer, according to Climate Central. California has seen a 172% increase in burned areas over the past 50 years. A phenomenon directly linked to the increase in global temperatures and the decrease in humidity.

As Kimberley Simpson, a specialist in nature-based climate solutions at the University of Sheffield, explains, “These devastating fires are occurring with increased intensity and earlier in the year, redefining fire regimes in California”. Of the 20 largest fires in state history, 19 have occurred since 2003. Half of them in the last five years. In addition, generally speaking around the world, experts agree that uncontrolled fires will increase by 50% by 2100.

Gare au “Climate whiplash”

“Climate whiplash” events, characterized by sudden oscillations between periods of extreme drought and episodes of torrential rain, are increasing across the world under the effect of global warming. This phenomenon, linked to a warmer atmosphere capable of retaining more water vapor, intensifies droughts by drying out the soil while increasing the frequency of torrential rains. The consequences are particularly visible in regions like East Africa, Pakistan and California. There, prolonged droughts were followed by record rainfall. Consequence: landslides, floods and massive agricultural losses. In Los Angeles, this climatic instability contributed to recent devastating fires, after abundant vegetation – linked to heavy precipitation in early 2024 – dried out in record heat.

These events have increased from 31% to 66% since the mid-20th century (there is no consensus yet among studies but the increase is certain). Experts are therefore calling for an urgent adaptation of infrastructure and policies. This includes reviewing the management of water resources. Rivers should be allowed to return to their floodplains to slow down flows and reduce the sealed surfaces in cities. Working agricultural land differently to make it more permeable would also be necessary. These measures, combined with a drastic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, are essential to limit the growing impact of these extreme climate transitions, which could more than double in intensity if global temperatures reach +3°C. An increasingly likely scenario according to climatologists.

Colossal human and financial impacts

Fires don’t just leave charred landscapes; they profoundly affect communities. Benjamin Hamlington, a resident of the Altadena neighborhood north of Los Angeles, whose house was destroyed, testified: “It is a significant event, not only because of the extent of the destruction, but also because of the eerie calm that reigns afterwards.” The current toll, this Wednesday, January 15, 2025, is 25 dead. More than 12,300 structures were destroyed, exposing millions of people to toxic fumes filled with hazardous substances from burning homes, vehicles and plastics. To this are added some 88,000 people subject to an evacuation order.

The economic cost of these fires also promises to be devastating. Governor Gavin Newsom called them “worst natural disaster in US history in terms of costs”. AccuWeather’s initial forecast, released last weekend, estimated financial losses at $275 billion. And the fires are not all under control, so the bill could continue to rise…

The crucial role of public and institutional policies

Public policy and infrastructure play a central role in fire prevention and management in California. The state has already experimented with prevention techniques, such as controlled burning to reduce flammable vegetation. But their large-scale adoption remains hampered by regulatory and financial constraints. Governor Gavin Newsom is currently the subject of criticism after having passed, in June 2024, a reduction of 100 million dollars in the funds allocated in 2025 to seven “fire and forest resilience” programs.

At the same time, aging electrical infrastructure exacerbates the risk of fires. Burying power lines, which would cost about $3 million per mile (compared to $800,000 for overhead lines), is progressing slowly. For example, Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) announced plans to bury 10,000 miles of lines over ten years, a project estimated to cost between $15 billion and $30 billion.

The need for proactive and resilient management

Faced with these challenges, experts are calling for more robust prevention measures. Recommendations include controlled burning to reduce the buildup of flammable vegetation, modernization of infrastructure and power grids, and better coordination of relief efforts. California, a pioneer in environmental policies, could play a key role by testing innovative solutions to limit the impact of fires.

At the same time, awareness must be global. The fires in California are a symptom of climate change, a problem that knows no borders. These fires in Los Angeles are a – new – painful alert.

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