A dollar weakened by monetary policy forecasts
Thursday morning, European investors are observing a falling US dollar. Treasury bond yields are following a similar trend, marking a notable decline. The weakening is attributed to increased anticipation of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve during the year, fueled by subdued inflation data.
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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States increased by 2.9% annual rate in Decemberin line with forecasts, after a rate of 2.7% in November. The Core CPI, excluding volatile energy and food prices, disappointed slightly with an increase of 3.2%, against an expectation of 3.3%. These figures reinforce the idea of a less restrictive monetary policy.
The yen and the Australian dollar on the move
Despite a context of risk appetite, the main currencies of the Forex market are unable to fully benefit from it. The Japanese yen (JPY), however, stands out, gaining ground against the dollar in a climate marked by speculation about an upcoming rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Anonymous sources told Bloomberg that the decision could be announced next week, barring any major upheaval in the markets.
For its part, the Australian dollar (AUD) is struggling to maintain its momentum after encouraging data on employment in Australia. Although the unemployment rate rose slightly, the news fueled expectations of monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
The pound sterling and the euro under pressure
The pound sterling remains weakened, oscillating around 1.2200 USD. The latest economic data from the United Kingdom disappointed: gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.1% in Novemberbelow expectations of 0.2%. Industrial and manufacturing production also declined, heightening concerns about the country’s economic health.
-The euro (EUR) remains stable, but the bullish outlook is limited. Markets await the minutes of the latest meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), while closely monitoring upcoming releases of retail sales and unemployment claims in the United States.
Raw materials: gold and oil in sight
Gold price rebounds to test the 2 700 dollars after a brief drop to $2,690. This movement reflects the hesitation of investors regarding the evolution of the dollar. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil is stabilizing below 79 dollarscurbing its recent rise to six-month highs.
The currency table: the yen in the lead
Today’s data shows a particularly weak dollar against the yen, which posted a gain of 0,27 % against the greenback. European and Oceanian currencies remain more hesitant, with modest variations on Forex.
| Devise | Variation against the USD |
|---|---|
| EUR | -0,02 % |
| GBP | 0,20 % |
| JPY | -0,27 % |
| CAD | 0,18 % |
| AUD | 0,19 % |
| NZD | 0,16 % |
| CHF | -0,10 % |
The currency market remains marked by divergent movements, illustrating the persistent uncertainties regarding the economic and monetary trajectories of the main economies.
