What turning point led to this historic ceasefire between Israel and Hamas? Here is the analysis by Michel Liégeois, professor of international relations at UCLouvain.
After more than 15 months of a war between Israel and Hamas which left tens of thousands dead in the Palestinian territory, Qatar and the United States announced last night the conclusion of an agreement on a ceasefire -fire in the Gaza Strip and the release of hostages.
After more than a year of blockage, indirect negotiations have accelerated in recent days via international mediators – United States, Qatar, Egypt – before Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
But what was the trigger that made it possible to obtain this historic ceasefire? “The Israeli government considered that it had advanced sufficiently far in its military objectives, in relation to Hamas, to be able to consider a ceasefire and concede the end of operations against Hamas.“, replies Michel Liégeois, professor of international relations at UCLouvain. “Israel has clearly announced its desire to eradicate any military presence in Gaza. It seems that today he considers that his objectives have been achieved“, he adds.
Donald Trump, personally, did not play a decisive role
Donald Trump quickly reacted: “We have a hostage deal in the Middle East. They will be released soon“, welcomed the president-elect who recently promised “hell“to the region if the hostages were not released before his return to the White House on January 20. Was it he who allowed this ceasefire? Not entirely, replies Michel Liégeois. “The prospect of change of administration has had an impact on many international processes. I don’t think Donald Trump, personally, played any role in this negotiation. His teams were associated. Moreover, the Biden administration recognized that there was collaboration between the two teams in this transition phase, but Donald Trump, personally, did not play a decisive role“.
However, it is important to be careful, adds the professor. “This ceasefire must be hailed as the first real humanitarian clearing. The second issue is that this ceasefire be extended. It is still necessary that all parties respect it, this is not yet absolutely certain, and that it be extended. 42 days is way too short. We should not entertain unreasonable hopes. It’s just a ceasefire. It’s already enormous and it must be welcomed on a humanitarian level… But that’s just it“.
The ceasefire will come into effect on Sunday and will last 42 days (6 weeks). 33 hostages held in Gaza will be released, including civilian women, as well as children, the elderly, sick civilians and the wounded, in exchange for several prisoners held in Israeli prisons.
The agreement, in addition to the ceasefire, includes the withdrawal of Israeli forces towards the east, away from populated areas. Details regarding phases two and three (of the agreement) will be finalized during the implementation of the first phase. The second phase should also allow the release of the last hostages and a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
Gaza war between Israel and Hamas Israel hamas Ceasefire agreement in Gaza
