Sino-Russian trade reaches historic levels

Global economic relations are evolving under the effect of geopolitical tensions and the strategic repositioning of great powers. In this context, China and Russia are consolidating their commercial partnership, which will reach a historic record of 240 billion euros in 2024. This growth illustrates a strategic rapprochement reinforced by Western sanctions against Moscow and Beijing’s desire to extend its influence. More than a simple economic alliance, this cooperation sends a clear signal to the United States and the European Union, which seek to limit their ascendancy on the world stage. Thus, the growth in trade flows, the increased use of the yuan in transactions and the restructuring of international financial circuits now raise the question of the long-term consequences of this Sino-Russian agreement.

Bilateral trade booming despite sanctions

Trade between China and Russia reached a record level of 240 billion euros in 2024, with growth of 2% compared to the previous year, according to official Chinese customs data. Although this progression is more moderate than in 2023, when the increase reached 26.3%, it confirms the solidity of the economic partnership between the two countries. Since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, Sino-Russian cooperation has taken on a new dimension. Indeed, Moscow is seeking alternative outlets in the face of Western sanctions while Beijing adopts a posture of strategic neutrality, which allows it to maintain and even increase its relations with Russia.

In this context, Russian exports to China are mainly based on hydrocarbons and raw materials, the value of which exceeded $94 billion in 2023. Oil, gas and minerals constitute the bulk of products sent to the market Chinese, which provides Moscow with essential income for its economy, while Europe is gradually reducing its dependence on Russian gas and aims for a total shutdown by 2027. In return, China is intensifying its exports of manufactured goods and technological, and even consolidates its role as a key supplier for Russian industry, which is suffering the effects of sanctions and restrictions imposed by the United States and the European Union. This interdependence strengthens the economic rapprochement between the two nations, which redefines their alliances in the face of external pressures.

Dedollarization and global economic tensions

The evolution of Sino-Russian trade goes beyond trade volumes. The growing role of the yuan in these transactions marks a major change. Now, the Chinese currency dominates bilateral settlements, reflecting a joint desire to reduce dependence on the US dollar. This transition directly benefits Beijing, which seeks to internationalize its currency, and Moscow, which sees it as a way to protect itself against Western sanctions. According to an analysis by Cepii (Center for Prospective Studies and International Information), the gradual dedollarization of the Russian economy has allowed the ruble to regain a certain stability, after having depreciated sharply in 2022 under the effect financial sanctions.

This monetary rebalancing is part of a global context marked by rising economic tensions. Donald Trump’s return to the White House could further disrupt the Chinese economy. Indeed, the president-elect has already announced his intention to considerably increase customs duties on Chinese imports, with taxes ranging between 10 and 20% on all products and which can reach 100% on certain strategic goods. Such a trade policy would directly threaten Chinese exports, already weakened by American technological restrictions. Faced with this uncertainty, Beijing could further strengthen its partnership with Moscow, which seeks to compensate for possible losses on the American market through the consolidation of its influence in Eurasia. However, this strategy carries risks, including overexposure of the Chinese economy to Russian fluctuations and a further deterioration of relations with Washington, which could accelerate the fragmentation of global trade into competing economic blocs.

The economic rapprochement between China and Russia is reshaping global trade balances. While Moscow seeks to circumvent Western sanctions, Beijing is strengthening its influence through the diversification of its alliances. This dynamic pushes the great powers to review their economic and monetary strategies, in a context where the rise of the yuan and dedollarization are modifying international financial circuits. If this cooperation offers the two countries an alternative to American and European pressure, it could also revive trade and diplomatic tensions, particularly against the United States, which is considering new restrictions on Chinese imports. Ultimately, this Sino-Russian alliance could accelerate the fragmentation of the world economy, which would accentuate polarization between competing economic blocs.

Luc Jose A.

A graduate of Sciences Po Toulouse and holder of a blockchain consultant certification issued by Alyra, I joined the Cointribune adventure in 2019. Convinced of the potential of blockchain to transform many sectors of the economy, I took the commitment to raise awareness and inform the general public about this constantly evolving ecosystem. My goal is to enable everyone to better understand blockchain and seize the opportunities it offers. I strive every day to provide an objective analysis of current events, to decipher market trends, to relay the latest technological innovations and to put into perspective the economic and societal issues of this ongoing revolution.