Real estate crisis in Toulouse. Why is it difficult to make forecasts for 2025?

In November 2024, the Real Estate Observatory Toulouse announced an “unprecedented real estate crisis” and predicted a “black year” for 2025. What is the situation today?

Very varied real estate prices in Toulouse

According to Meilleurs agents, an online real estate estimation tool, the average price of a apartment in Toulouse is today 3 462 €/m². “It’s excessively fictitious,” comments Hubert Létinier, president of the Chamber of Notaries of the Toulouse Court of Appeal.

“Today, in Toulouse, you can find very different prices ranging from €1,100/m² to more than €6,000/m² for old real estate. »

According to data from the Meilleurs agents site, this average price has decreased slightly (-1.7%) over the last three months. Despite everything, we see a slight average increase of + 0.6% over the year 2024.

A “strange situation” due to the annual interest rate

Nationally, a “strange situation” has taken hold in recent months.

“There is an undeniable need for housing,” explains Hubert Létinier. “In Toulouse, we welcome 5,000 to 8,000 new workers per year. At the same time, we see an 80% drop in sales for new housing and 50% for old housing. »

“It may seem very strange, but it can be explained by the increase in the annual interest rate [pourcentage du montant total du crédit à verser en plus de la somme empruntée]. Nationally, two years ago it was 0.9%. Six months ago it exploded to 4.5%, and today it has fallen back a bit to 3.5%.

“Let’s take the example of a family who wants to buy a home. For the same neighborhood, with an identical budget set two years ago, they will be able to buy an apartment today with one room less. It’s absolutely gigantic as a gap!”

Today, with -50% to -80% fewer homes sold, the professional real estate sector finds itself in an unprecedented crisis.

“This creates significant waves of layoffs in the world of real estate, but also in construction or with notaries or developers,” explains Hubert Létinier. “Such a long-term crisis has never existed before. »

Pinel law and current policies

Since January 1, 2025, the Pinel law (also known as the “Pinel device”) ended. “This law allowed an investor, who wanted to buy to rent, to recover 15% of the purchase price in taxes, in exchange for which he must rent at a correct capped price. This system allowed a reduction in the purchasing cost
», Explains the president of the Chamber of Notaries of Toulouse.

“Today, there is no longer a tax exemption law. So now, we no longer know where we are going. We absolutely need a law. We are now seeing a slight drop in purchases by individuals , but fortunately, she contains herself, there is no collapse.”

Towards a market recovery in 2025?

“Normally, in times of crisis, we see a drop in real estate priceswhich revive the market», says Hubert Létinier. “But at present, the decline is very contained. There are small waves of recovery, but you have to be very careful. We can perhaps imagine a slow recovery for 2025. »

Today, interest rates can “vary very slightly depending on the region”.

Finally, the political climate plays a role in the increase or decrease in price: “There is a real current political instability. Whether national or international. There is no finance law. This is a first! It is therefore very difficult to make forecasts for 2025…”

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