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Fires in Los Angeles: this other reason which explains the extent of the damage

Fires in Los Angeles: this other reason which explains the extent of the damage
Fires in Los Angeles: this other reason which explains the extent of the damage

In the United States, the death toll from the terrible fires ravaging Los Angeles has risen to 24 deaths.

The very dry vegetation in the area and the violent winds amplified the fires.

But it is also the city’s lack of adaptation to these types of extreme events which explains the extent of the damage.

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Twenty-four deaths, 180,000 people displaced, between $135 and $150 billion in damage and entire neighborhoods of Los Angeles wiped off the map… the toll of the fires that have ravaged California for the past week is terrible. And the situation could worsen in the coming days, with hot and dry winds which will regain strength by Wednesday.

Although the origin of the fire has not yet been identified, several elements explain the rapid spread of the flames and the difficulty in controlling these fires. In this area, the alternation of intense rains from January to July 2024 then a long period of drought favored the development of abundant, but very dry, vegetation, which served as fuel for the flames. These were also fueled by the “Santa Ana winds”, which blew up to 160 km/h last week, unheard of since 2011 according to the American meteorological services. These winds further dry out the vegetation and cause the embers to travel from one area to another, making it easier to catch fire.

+25% fire risk due to climate change

While more precise studies still need to be carried out, ClimaMeter researchers (new window)who study the attribution of extreme weather phenomena to climate change, estimate that these fires “were fueled by weather conditions enhanced by human-induced climate change“.

And California’s geographic location, as well as its geology, increase its vulnerability to climate change. According to a study published in Nature (new window) in 2023, warming increases the risk of rapid fires in this southern state by 25%.

The blind spot in climate policy: adaptation

But these are not the only reasons which explain the scale of the tragedy. Several researchers have denounced the city’s lack of adaptation to the consequences of climate change. The subject of adaptation is in fact the poor relation of climate policies: for many years, efforts have been focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, without taking into account the necessary adaptation of territories. For some, adapting means giving up the fight against climate change.

However, adaptation is necessary since whatever efforts are put in place to combat climate change, warming will continue due to climate inertia (the Earth’s reaction time to efforts to reduce greenhouse gases). greenhouse in the atmosphere).

In recent years, states, regions and cities have, however, accelerated on the subject: , for example, presented a national plan for adaptation to climate change, supposed to make it possible to anticipate a warming scenario of +4 degrees by 2100.

Constructions on the edge of the forests

In Los Angeles, if lessons were learned from the fires of 2018 (105 deaths) and the “Dixie fire” of summer 2021 – with, for example, a population alert system, making it possible to know precisely the movement of fires and evacuation accordingly – the efforts to adapt to these new climatic conditions have not been sufficient.

First, due to the rampant urbanization of the area. In recent years, many houses have been built on the edge of the forest, with two consequences: first, the risk of fire increases, because very often, fires are of human origin (cigarette butts thrown in nature, for example); then, these dwellings, often made of wood, provide fuel for the flames.

These residential areas on the edge of the forest, the “wildland-urban interface” in English, are particularly vulnerable in the event of fires. However, almost half of the homes in the state of California are located in these risk zones. These wooden constructions, popular for their “natural” side and their integration into the environment, go up in smoke in the event of violent fires.

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This explains the images of desolation broadcast throughout the world: houses are literally wiped off the map. On the other hand, these houses, aligned next to each other, prevent effective clearing of brush, which reduces the fire risk. For all these reasons, insurers have also refused to renew the contracts of nearly 3 million owners in California between 2020 and 2023.

The scarcity of water resources: how to adapt?

In the “toolbox” that constitutes climate change adaptation policies, there are architectural and urban solutions to prepare cities for this type of event and improve their resilience. This may involve construction without flammable materials, but also more generally rethinking urbanization plans.

Furthermore, the road network combined with demographic growth makes any evacuation complex, as does any access for firefighters to fire starting zones.

Then, water management is another problem in an area marked by episodes of drought: the level of Lake Mead, which supplies part of the south of the state of California, is for example regularly very low. Historically, water management has always been complex in this arid zone.

But this problem has been reinforced by urbanization and demographic development: more inhabitants means more water needs. Climate change requires the implementation of new logistics adapted to the scarcity of resources combined with the increased risk of fires.

Finally, several American newspapers, including New York Times (new window)highlighted the dilapidation of the electricity network and the lack of adaptation of lines and poles to these new climatic conditions.

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I never thought that a megacity like Los Angeles could be the scene of fires of this magnitude.”reacts climatologist Robert Vautard, co-president of the IPCC. “This is a signal to other cities around the world whose vulnerability to this type of risk is much higher than that of Los Angeles.”

Studies are absolutely necessary to fully understand the causes of this disaster, probably resulting from combined effects: extreme winds, drought, water resources, urbanization, etc. he continues. The next IPCC report, expected in March 2027, will specifically address the subject of climate change in cities, and the necessary adaptation to these risks.

When in doubt, is adaptation still possible? For Robert Vautard, these fires are indeed calling “to evaluate the limits of adaptation, that is to say the conditions in which adaptation would simply become impossible.” In Los Angeles, some are already pleading not to rebuild in certain places, now considered too sensitive.


Marianne ENAULT

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