Russia has warned that Armenia would pay a heavy economic price if it strives to join the European Union.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk said late Thursday that possible EU membership was “incompatible” with Armenia remaining in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), a trade bloc. led by Russia which gives it tariff-free access to the vast Russian market. The South Caucasus country would also have to pay much more for Russian energy resources and food, he added.
The government approved earlier on Thursday a bill on “launching a process of Armenia’s accession to the European Union” drafted by several pro-Western political and civic groups. The Armenian parliament has not yet planned to debate this bill.
“After the adoption of this law, we will have to discuss with the EU the road maps envisaged by it and by us and jointly develop a road map,” Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian said during a cabinet meeting in Yerevan. This process would be followed by an Armenian referendum on EU membership, he added.
We consider the beginning of the discussion in Armenia on the bill “On launching the process of joining the European Union” as the beginning of Armenia’s withdrawal from the EAEU,” Mr. Overchuk told the Russian media. “The Russian Federation will develop its economic policy towards Armenia taking into account this circumstance.
This withdrawal, he warned, would lead to a rise in the cost of Russian natural gas and food imported by Armenia, as well as a sharp decline in Armenian exports.
“So ordinary people will lose income, jobs and pay more for the most necessary things. In return, they will most likely get a visa-free regime [avec les pays de l’UE] and Armenia will be depopulated,” Mr. Overchuk added.
On Thursday, Mr Pashinian did not mention Armenia’s possible exit from the EU. On Friday, its press service referred a request from RFE/RL about this possibility to the Armenian Foreign Ministry. The latter made no comment in the hours that followed.
On December 13, Pashinian again praised the EU, saying that the Union had contributed to Armenia’s strong economic growth.
Russia accounted for around 42% of Armenia’s foreign trade between January and October 2024, compared to 7.3% for the EU. Russian-Armenian trade has boomed since 2022, with Armenian entrepreneurs taking advantage of Western sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.
Russia is also Armenia’s main supplier of natural gas and nuclear fuel. Armenia pays giant Gazprom $165 per thousand cubic meters of Russian gas used not only by power plants and households, but also by the vast majority of car owners in the country. Wholesale gas prices in the EU are currently three times higher.
Arman Yeghoyan, pro-government chairman of the Armenian parliamentary committee on European integration, admitted on Friday that Yerevan should choose between the EU and the EAEU.
“If we manage to join the customs union [de l’UE] or to have a free trade agreement [avec l’UE] like that of Georgia or Moldova, then yes, this question will arise,” Mr. Yeghoyan told RFE/RL’s Armenian service.
Mr. Overchuk’s comments suggest that Mr. Pashinian’s administration will have to make this choice sooner. The Russian Deputy Prime Minister said that the authors of the bill approved by Parliament should have added a clause stipulating the end of Armenia’s membership in the EU.
Reprinted with permission from RFE/RL Copyright(c)2007 Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Inc.1201 Connecticut Ave, t N.W. Washington DC 20
