State and Social Security budgets, season 2. While the government consults the political forces represented in Parliament to try to find a way through, the examination of budgetary texts, interrupted by censorship by the Barnier government in early Decemberwill resume in the coming days in Parliament.
According to what timetable? “If the budget is voted on at the latest at the end of February at the beginning of March“, the reindexation of the income tax scale will be “automatic“, indicated at the beginning of the week, in The Parisian, the Minister of Public Accounts, Amélie de Montchalin. Implying that once this date passed, things would become more complex. “I hope we will have a budget by mid-February“, for his part declared the Prime Minister, François BayrouDecember 19, on France 2.
Until then – and since the government has decided to start from the texts of the Barnier era, before possible adjustments resulting from current political discussions – the examination of finance bill (PLF) 2025 will start again where he left off, namely In the Senate chamber. From Wednesday January 15, senators will resume debates on the second part of the budget, dedicated to spending. With a vote scheduled for Thursday, January 23, according to the agenda adopted on Wednesday by the Conference of Presidents of the Palais du Luxembourg.
A CMP in stride
And after? A joint joint commission (CMP) will be convened immediately, at the end of January, to attempt to reach a common text in both Houses of Parliament. This conciliation meeting would take place from the evening of January 23 until January 24, or January 27, according to a parliamentary source. More like 28-29, says another. And if this time, on the Palais-Bourbon side, the rotating headquarters of the CMP should be occupied by a deputy from the “Ecologist and Social” group, that is to say an opposition group, “a legal doubt must still be resolved“according to information collected by LCP this Friday. The reason? The seat of the CMP on the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS), which was occupied by an elected official from the “Horizons” group at the end of the year, should it or not be counted, even though the text has not been voted on? “An audit is in progress“, the result of which will be specified on Tuesday during the Conference of Presidentsindicates a parliamentary advisor who is following the file.
Depending on the outcome of the joint committee on the PLF, several scenarios exist. The CMP is conclusivethen the 2025 budget is adopted by both Chambers. This assumes that the government obtains a sufficient majority or that it is not censored by the National Assembly if it decides to use article 49 paragraph 3 of the Constitution. At the beginning of December, it was after using 49.3 on the PLFSS that the Barnier government fell. The CMP is not conclusive and the finance bill continues its legislative journey at the beginning of February, with a new reading of the text, first by the deputies, then by the senators, before a possible final reading in the National Assembly which has the last word in the event of persistent disagreement.
The so-called “funnel” rule, which governs the right to amendments, will then apply: any amendment calling into question a provision adopted in conformity by the deputies and senators, or introducing an additional provision without direct relation to the provisions remaining under discussion, is declared inadmissible.
A vote on the Social Security budget on January 23 in the Senate
Quid you social security financing bill ? Senators will vote on January 23in the hemicycle, on the conclusions of the CMP, which had not been approved by the deputies since the government had been censored. “It’s quite surprising after the censorship, but only then can we start reading again“, explains the senator Elisabeth Doineau (Centrist Union)general rapporteur of the PLFSS in the Senate.
In the event of a favorable vote, which is likely, given the political composition of the Senate, the text will be examined in new reading in the National Assembly. When ? Early or late February, depending on the PLF review. On the other hand, if the Senate were to vote against the text of the CMP, the PLFSS would be rejected and the government would then have to table a new text. In the first case, the most likely, a new reading would also take place in the Senate before, again, a possible final reading by the deputies.
