A study published in “The Lancet” suggests that the number of deaths in Gaza is underestimated by 40%
A study published Friday by the prestigious British medical journal The Lancet estimates that the number of deaths in Gaza during the first nine months of the war between Israel and Hamas was approximately 40% higher than that recorded by the Palestinian territory’s health ministry.
The number of people killed in Gaza has been the subject of fierce debate since Israel launched its campaign against Hamas in response to the attack on its territory on October 7, 2023. From the start of the war until On June 30 last year, the health ministry in the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip reported a death toll of 37,877.
The study of Lancet suggests that between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths were caused by traumatic injuries in Gaza during this period. The probable number of deaths estimated by the Lancet is 64,260 deaths until this date, a figure 41% higher than that of the Ministry of Health. This figure represents 2.9% of Gaza’s pre-war population, “approximately one in 35 inhabitants”according to the study.
The researchers used a statistical method called “capture-recapture” that has already been used to estimate the number of deaths in other conflicts around the world, which relies on three lists. The first is that provided by the Ministry of Health and includes bodies identified in hospitals or morgues. The second came from an online survey launched by the health ministry, in which Palestinians reported the deaths of their loved ones. The third was established from obituaries published on social networks, such as X, Instagram, Facebook and WhatsApp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.
This report only concerns deaths due to traumatic injuries and therefore does not include indirect deaths, such as those due to lack of care or food, nor the thousands of missing people believed to be buried under the rubble. “We only included in our study people whose death had been confirmed by their loved ones or by morgues and hospitals”Zeina Jamaluddine, epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, lead author of the study, told Agence France-Presse. The researchers then examined the death lists for duplicates. “We looked for overlaps between the three lists (…) in order to obtain a total estimate of the population killed »she clarified.
-The study authors, however, urged caution, explaining that lists published by hospitals do not always specify the cause of death, so it is possible that people with non-traumatic health problems, such as a heart attack, were included, which could lead to an overestimation. There are, however, other reasons why the toll of the war in Gaza may be underestimated. The study did not take into account missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA said around 10,000 missing Gazans were believed to be buried under the rubble.
No one is able to independently verify the number of deaths in Gaza, while entry to this territory remains prohibited to the press and investigators from non-governmental organizations.
On Thursday, the enclave’s health ministry said 46,006 people had died during the 15-month war, mostly in Israeli bombings. Israel has questioned the credibility of Gaza’s health ministry figures, but they have been deemed reliable by the United Nations.
