Expected increase of more than 10% in the price of coffee next March

All ground or bean coffee sold at the grocery store will soon cost 10% to 25% more for Quebec consumers due to climate change

• Also read: Starbucks, Tim Hortons and Second Cup accused of overcharging tens of millions

“It’s time to stock up! We should expect increases from March,” recognizes Rémi Tremblay, boss of the Sherbrooke roaster Café William.

This is the same observation among its larger competitors, such as Van Houtte, or among local players of the same size, such as Café Napoléon or Café Faro.

“I have seen price increases in 41 years in the business, but it is getting worse and worse and it has increased dramatically this year,” says the co-founder of Café Napoléon, Gérard Kelly.

The roaster of course talks about the price of the beans, which he buys, like everyone else, on the world market. At US$3.21 per pound currently, the price of Arabica is at a 50-year high.

If we add to that the disastrous forecasts for the 2025 harvests in Brazil, the world’s largest producer, roasters must adjust.

Climate change is wreaking havoc in South America, where temperature variations, more than warming, are harming farmers.

“It is now becoming inevitable to adjust our prices on some of our brands, such as Van Houtte,” acknowledges a spokesperson for Keurig Dr Pepper Canada.

Reduction and price increases

Certain formats will even be reduced in order to limit price increases, she adds. These adjustments will become reality “in the coming months”.

Roasters are currently paying approximately US$2.75 more per pound of beans than in November 2024. Added to the market price is the exchange rate, far from being in their favor since the end of summer.

Future increases for consumers will be of the order of 10% to 25%, depending on the brand.

“It is certain that the consumer is not going to pay 100% of the cost increases. We do what we need to do to stay in business,” summarizes Maxime Fabi, co-owner of Brûleries FARO.

Its 908 g bag of coffee beans sold at Metro, IGA or elsewhere currently retails for $21.99. It will be $26.99 in a few weeks.

At Napoléon, the increase will be $2.20 per kilo, which will increase the 908 g bag from $23.99 to $26.27. It will be $1.50 to $2 per 800 g bag at Café William.

The giants decide

Keurig Dr Pepper Canada does not give figures regarding the announced increase in the price of Van Houtte coffee, “given that we do not directly control prices in stores,” says the spokesperson.

These prices are controlled by the retailers themselves, from Metro to IGA to Provigo and others. Roasters transmit their requests for price increases, then cross their fingers.

“Retailers will maintain their profit margins, that’s how it works,” explains Maxime Fabi, from Faro.

For the roaster, an increase of $5 per kilo of coffee only serves to balance its accounts, not to make more profit. The grocer sets prices according to his margin, which means that if the price rises from $21.99 to $26.99, he makes more profit.

Three roasters, three points of view

Gérard Kelly – Café Napoléon

After 41 years in the coffee world, he notes that beans are becoming rarer, especially quality ones. “It’s at the top of the mountains that we find the quality varieties. For the moment, it’s still going down the mountain, but it’s much harder at the top,” he illustrates. If coffee has “still” not become a luxury product, that’s where we’re heading, thinks the roaster. He has already taken the organic, fair trade route, which convinced his son to take over. “He’s the one who pushes me, and he’s the one who will continue the adventure,” says Gérard Kelly proudly about his son, William.

Rémi Tremblay – Café William

Part of his job as a boss is to keep up to date with industry news and what he reads doesn’t reassure him at all. “The general impression, the opinion of almost all the experts, is that high prices are here to stay,” he says. Temperature differences caused by climate change are currently hurting the entire sector. “And we haven’t yet talked about the Amazon forest which burned all summer in Brazil,” he laments.

Maxime Fabi – Café Faro

It’s definitely time to stock up, he says, even though you can freeze coffee, despite what some people say. “If the container is airtight, the coffee will be impeccable after two, three or even four months of freezing,” assures the roaster from father to son. If prices will perhaps recover a little in the second part of 2025, we shouldn’t expect the moon either, he says. All the more reason to stock up and buy now.

Increases to be expected
_{(Average of regular prices)}

Café William, 800 g bag

Café Faro, 908 g bag

Café Napoleon, 908 g bag

_{Sources: Metro, Super C, Provigo, Maxi, IGA, Costco, Mayrand, Valmont}