Justin Trudeau’s resignation, announced this week, marks the start of a new political era for Canada. The rise of the Conservative Party of Canada (PCC) led by Pierre Poilievre seems to herald a majority government, with projections giving it more than 200 seats.
However, a negligible proportion of these seats would come from Quebec, meaning the Conservative victory will likely materialize without significant support from the French-speaking province.
Considering the Harper years, this political dynamic is fraught with meaning. A crucial question then arises for Quebec: how to prepare for the Poilievre years?
Learn from the past
With electoral projections that largely favor Pierre Poilievre’s conservatives, it is likely that the latter will come to power without even needing the support of Quebec. This dynamic, which we have already observed under the government of Stephen Harper, risks marginalizing Quebec demands.
From 2006 to 2015, Harper demonstrated a minimalist approach towards the province, contenting himself with symbolic gestures such as the recognition of the Quebec nation in 2006, but avoiding tackling fundamental issues, whether it was the financing of culture or respect for provincial jurisdiction. Quebec could therefore, once again, find itself left out of the priorities of a Conservative government that now has a majority across the country.
This phenomenon highlights a frustrating reality: the incessant alternation between the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party in Canada leaves little room for a long-term vision for Quebec. Under the Liberals, Quebec is losing ground on the issues of its cultural and linguistic autonomy, with interference (in matters of health for example) worthy of the centralizing vision of the Trudeau dynasty.
When the Conservatives take back the reins, calling into question key policies and imposing priorities often far removed from Quebec realities, Quebec loses ground on the financing of structuring projects, notably on the energy transition (and thus on its territorial integrity) and the public transport. With the possible deputation of the PCC, everything suggests that the cultural and linguistic issues of Quebec will not be further put forward. The cycle seems doomed to repeat itself, fueling a feeling of stagnation and frustration among Quebec citizens.
-Preparing for the Pierre Poilievre years
With Justin Trudeau’s resignation and the upcoming election, it’s time to think about strategies to navigate the years to come under Poilievre. This includes strengthening Quebec’s weight on the federal scene, but also pushing for greater autonomy in order to limit the effects of these political oscillations.
If the past is indicative of the future, it would be unwise to count on a Conservative government to take Quebec priorities into account. Only bold initiatives will make it possible to break this cycle and guarantee a dignified place for Quebec inside, or outside, the Canada of tomorrow.
Photo provided by Alexis St-Maurice
Alexis St-Maurice
M. Sc. Political science (2018 – 2020, University of Montreal)
Alumni of the Center for the Study of Democratic Citizenship (CÉCD)
