If some economists prefer to downplay its impact, believing that the slight drop in the Tunisian dinar against the US dollar would only be temporary, other experts remain more circumspect.
Thus the Tunisian national currency “should recover in the days to come”, estimate economists Moez Hadidane and Bassam Neifar in their respective interventions in the national media. This is because on January 2, 2025, the exchange rate of the Tunisian dinar against the US dollar rose for the first time in its history to 3.2 dinars, according to data from the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT).
After several years during which the Tunisian dinar remained stable against the dollar, at 3.1 dinars/the dollar, in particular thanks to the efforts of the BCT since 2019, the Tunisian currency recorded, once again on Monday January 6, 2025, a drop in its value to trade on the banking market at the level of 3.2098 dinars. However, it should be noted that the assumptions of the 2025 state budget are based on a price of 77.4 dollars per barrel of oil as well as on a stability of the exchange rate of the dinar against the main currencies (dollar and euro).
Contrast with the holding of the dinar against the euro
For financial analyst Bassam Neifar, the increase in the exchange rate of the dollar against the Tunisian dinar is estimated at 0.35%, which allowed the dollar to rise above 3.2 dinars, against a decline of 0.36% of the euro against the dinar.
Neifar explains that there is indeed a strong demand for the dollar compared to the euro on international markets, rejecting the idea of a deterioration of the Tunisian dinar per se, which follows, according to him, trends on the markets worldwide.
Regarding the impact of this rise in the dollar on an international scale, the analyst highlighted that central banks around the world as well as economic studies predict that the dollar should remain strong throughout 2025, with the return of Donald Trump’s protectionism to the White House. The US dollar could even increase against the euro, and will continue to appreciate against the Tunisian dinar, while the euro could lose value against the local currency.
Neifar also warned that the fall of the euro against the dinar could have a negative effect on Tunisian exports, which are mainly destined for the euro zone. However, imports, mainly paid in dollars, will tend to increase.
“The Tunisian external debt is mainly denominated in euros (54%), US dollars (26.5%), Japanese yen (5.5%) and in special drawing units (the specific currency of the International Monetary Fund), which will make it possible to generate relative gains in terms of outstanding debt, towards the end of 2024,” he said. However, Tunisia could repay an amount greater than that initially planned with the deadline of January 30, which is 1 billion dollars, he stressed.
For Moez Hadidane, however, Trumpist politics could be a double-edged sword. “ Trump has pledged to implement a tough tariff policy, which could lead to a decline in the dollar in the coming weeks », he tempers. Over the past five years, the US dollar has appreciated by 14.02% against the Tunisian dinar, including 3.71% during the past year alone.
>> Read also: National Geographic: “Tunisia among the 25 best tourist destinations”
