15h00 ▪
7
min reading ▪ by
Luc Jose A.
Since January 2023, the crypto market has experienced a bullish phase marked by a strong appreciation of bitcoin and altcoins. This dynamic is driven by several factors, including accelerating institutional adoption, a massive influx of capital, and overall optimistic market sentiment. Added to this are anticipations around the approval of new crypto ETFs and possible favorable regulations which strengthen investor confidence. However, according to CryptoQuant, this euphoria could soon reach a crisis point. The analysis firm identifies several technical signals that indicate that the market has entered its final phase. Among them, the significant increase in the volume of bitcoin traded in less than a month, which reached 36% in the fourth quarter of 2024. This phenomenon, observed during previous market peaks, suggests a possible correction in the short or medium term. However, this warning is not unanimous. Institutions such as Steno Research and VanEck take a more optimistic view. According to them, the upward trend could continue until the end of 2025, driven by increasing adoption and a changing regulatory framework. VanEck even estimates that bitcoin could reach $180,000, while Ethereum would surpass $6,000 by the end of next year. Faced with these divergent forecasts, a question arises: should investors expect new price surges or, on the contrary, take their profits before a possible market turnaround?
CryptoQuant indicators announce imminent end of cycle
The analysis firm CryptoQuant provides information on a key indicator that could signal that the bull market is running out of steam. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the proportion of bitcoin traded for less than a month reached 36%, a level that in the past has often preceded market peaks. This phenomenon reflects intense activity in the short term, generally associated with the redistribution phases which precede major corrections.
According to Crypto Dan, analyst at CryptoQuant, this acceleration in trade is explained by a massive influx of new capital, to which are added additional investments from players already present on the market. In a publication dated January 6, 2025, he points out that these trends are typical of the latter stages of a bullish cycle. “With such a concentration of short-term trading volumes, it is reasonable to estimate that the market is nearing its peak“, he says.
Other technical signals reinforce this hypothesis. CryptoQuant estimates that this ratio of exchanges in a short period could increase another two to four times before a market turnaround. In other words, if a final wave of increases remains possible, the risk of correction increases considerably. “Expectations for substantial gains for bitcoin and altcoins remain valid, but careful risk management is required», Specifies Crypto Dan. This conservative approach contrasts with the more optimistic forecasts of other observers, who expect the bull run to continue until the end of 2025.
In this context, the divergence of points of view sheds light on a strategic dilemma for investors. Should we take advantage of the latest upside potential or anticipate a correction by securing our positions? The answer will largely depend on the evolution of capital flows and the behavior of institutional investors in the coming months.
A bull market that could last until the end of 2025?
While CryptoQuant warns of a possible end to the bull cycle, other experts take a much more optimistic outlook. Many analysts believe that the current momentum could continue throughout 2025, but also allow bitcoin and Ethereum to reach new all-time highs.
Among these optimistic voices, Steno Research anticipates an exceptional year for the crypto market. According to its analysts, the convergence of several structural factors could maintain the upward trend. Institutional adoption, which continues to accelerate, plays a central role in this dynamic. Added to this are regulatory advances, which should bring increased stability to markets and strengthen investor confidence. “2025 could well be the most decisive year for cryptos», They say, because they are counting on a strong appreciation of bitcoin and Ethereum in the months to come.
-Forecasts from asset manager VanEck support this analysis. In a note published on December 13, 2024, the company mentions an intermediate peak in the first quarter of 2025, followed by an acceleration towards new heights. According to their projections, bitcoin could reach $180,000, while Ethereum would surpass $6,000 before the end of the year. This scenario is largely based on an increasing institutionalization of the market, accompanied by the implementation of new financial products linked to cryptos.
Prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, also share this optimism. Their data reveals that investors expect a new phase of records for BTC and ETH, but also major regulatory developments. Among the most anticipated developments is the approval of new crypto ETFs in the United States. Some even anticipate the creation of a strategic bitcoin reserve by the American government, a decision which could mark a major milestone in the institutional recognition of crypto.
These projections contrast sharply with CryptoQuant’s more conservative approach, which highlights indicators of an imminent correction. This divergence poses an essential question: is the crypto market really at the end of its cycle, or are we simply witnessing a pause before a new phase of expansion? The outcome will largely depend on capital flows, the behavior of institutional investors and future regulatory decisions. If caution remains required in the face of technical signals, the enthusiasm of large institutions could well push back the deadline for a possible market reversal.
Maximize your Cointribune experience with our ‘Read to Earn’ program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.
Luc Jose A.
A graduate of Sciences Po Toulouse and holder of a blockchain consultant certification issued by Alyra, I joined the Cointribune adventure in 2019. Convinced of the potential of blockchain to transform many sectors of the economy, I took the commitment to raise awareness and inform the general public about this constantly evolving ecosystem. My goal is to enable everyone to better understand blockchain and seize the opportunities it offers. I strive every day to provide an objective analysis of current events, to decipher market trends, to relay the latest technological innovations and to put into perspective the economic and societal issues of this ongoing revolution.
