This is one of the major international political issues which will dominate the diplomatic and security agenda in 2025: the war in Ukraine, which has lasted for almost three years. With the return of Donald Trump to the White House, there is talk again of possible negotiations to try to end the conflict. Can we expect a breakthrough in the negotiations on Ukraine?
What is certain is that the new American president Donald Trumpwho will be officially invested on January 20, wants to settle the war in Ukraine. What is much less certain is whether the two protagonists, the Russians and the Ukrainians, are ready to begin such negotiations. And above all, on what basis?
During his campaign, Donald Trump explained thathe would solve the Ukrainian problem in 24 hours. He is less assertive today. And for good reason: on both sides, we say we are ready to negotiate, but on criteria so diametrically opposed that they seem doomed, as it stands, to failure. The Ukrainians explain that they must recover their entire territory, including the 18% of territory occupied by the Russians. But we feel that they could accept a freeze on this issue, if the final objective is reaffirmed.
And on the Russian side?
Moscow is on a much tougher stance, and the Russians have reacted to certain leaks that have deliberately emanated from the Trump camp. Proposals which are not yet a peace plan, but which somewhat resemble one.
First there is the proposal to freeze the front between the two protagonists and to deploy soldiers from European countries, and not fromI'll take italong this front. The head of Russian diplomacy, Sergey Lavrovhas already reacted: it’s “ not “. Also no to the proposal that Ukraine would not join NATO for a period of 20 years.
The American president's margin is narrow, but not non-existent. The mere fact of his return to the White House has already revived the very idea of negotiations. He returned to power when the Russians and Ukrainians had been fighting for almost three years and were both exhausted. Human losses on both sides were considerable.
THE Russians have more resources in weapons and men than Ukraine and have been on the offensive for several months. But this important offensive is not really decisive. Finally, Russia's economic situation has deteriorated significantly in recent weeks. For all these reasons, Donald Trump has a card to play, particularly vis-à-vis Moscow.
The fact remains that, if negotiations start, they will be long and painful. The war in Ukraine will not be resolved in 24 hours, as the new American president claimed. That's a near certainty.
