1. The gas tap is closed to the east
Since 1is January, one of the main gas transport routes between Russia and Europe is blocked. This is the Bratstvo (brotherhood, in French) gas pipeline, through which some of the molecules that European countries still buy from Russia transited. 14 billion cubic meters traveled through it to European countries in 2023, which represented little more than 5% of annual gas imports on the continent.
It was Ukraine which decided to put an end to it by not renewing the contract which linked the national oil and gas company Naftogaz with the Russian producer Gazprom. This led to upheavals on the European gas market. This umpteenth bag of energy knots between Russia and Europe has a collateral victim: Moldova, a country of less than three million inhabitants wedged between Ukraine to the east and Romania to the west. Gazprom has stopped its gas deliveries to Moldova's Kuchurgan power plant, whose production corresponds to 75% of the country's electricity consumption.
2. At the mercy of a harsh winter
Moldova saw it coming. On December 13, the country's Parliament voted for a state of emergency for a period of sixty days. While the thermometer has regularly fallen below zero these days in Chisinau, the capital, the ultra-dependence on Russian gas is causing an unprecedented shock.
Curiously, it is the pro-Russian part of the country which is the most affected. The secessionist region of Transnistria, self-proclaimed independent, shelters Russian soldiers on its soil. Lacking any alternative, it had to shut down its factories, with the exception of food production. “There are no energy resources for the industrial sector,” said Sergei Obolonik, the separatist representative in charge of the economy.
-On site, the 450,000 inhabitants of Transnistria are invited to “dress warmly”, to “group together in one room” and not to use homemade heating methods to prevent the risk of fire. A fate quite similar to the Ukrainian neighbors whose energy infrastructure is shelled by the Russian army. In the rest of Moldova, Romania's support helps limit the damage.
3. A destabilization enterprise
Turning off the tap can be interpreted as a new attempt to destabilize the country whose outgoing president, Maia Sandu, was re-elected at the beginning of November. Openly pro-European, she defeated the candidate supported by pro-Russian socialists despite strong suspicions of Russian interference in the electoral process.
Even if the energy crisis primarily affects Transnistria, the inflation that could result from the shortage is likely to erode the popularity of Maia Sandu, an objective for Moscow. Moldovan voters voted narrowly in favor of joining the European Union in a referendum held in October. Two votes, two defeats for Russian influence.
