An important chapter in European energy geopolitics has closed with the definitive cessation of the transit of Russian gas via Ukraine. The move marks the end of a five-year deal between kyiv and Moscow, ending a historic gas supply route. Symbolic for Ukraine, which thus intends to strengthen its independence in the face of its aggressor, this rupture has repercussions well beyond its borders.
The European Union faces the challenge of energy diversification
By stopping this transit, Europe must meet a major challenge: securing its energy supply. Although its dependence on Russian gas has decreased since 2022, some countries, particularly in Eastern Europe, remain vulnerable. Slovakia and Hungary, historically dependent on deliveries via Ukraine, are particularly concerned.
Alternatives available for Europe
In order to compensate for this loss, several options are being considered, but they are not without difficulties:
- Gazoduct TurkStream : This infrastructure, which passes under the Black Sea, is now becoming a major route for Russian gas to Europe. However, its use remains limited in volume.
- Liquefied natural gas (LNG) : Imported mainly from the United States and Qatar, LNG offers a viable alternative, although its cost is significantly higher than that of gas transported by pipeline.
These adjustments are already having visible consequences: gas prices in Europe have reached 50 euros per megawatt houra record for a year, putting pressure on consumers and businesses.
| Route | Ability | Relative cost | Reliability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gazoduct TurkStream | Average | Weak | High |
| LNG imports | High | Pupil | Average |
| Renewable energies | Limited in the short term | Variable | Very high |
Major implications for Moscow
For Russia, the end of this transit represents a significant financial loss. In 2023, approximately 14.65 billion cubic meters of gas had transited through Ukraine, generating significant revenues for Gazpromestimated at nearly 5 billion euros. The loss of this market further weakens a Russian economy already under pressure due to Western sanctions..
Moscow is trying to compensate by banking on its LNG exports and alternative routes like TurkStream. However, these options do not allow maintaining the level of influence that Russia previously had over Europe.
Ukraine and Moldova: between challenges and opportunities
If this decision allows kyiv to assert its energy independence, it is not without economic consequences. Revenues from transit, estimated at 800 million euros per yearwere an important source for financing Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Now the country must look for alternative ways to compensate for this loss.
For its part, the Moldovawhich was still partially dependent on Russian gas, is particularly affected. The pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria, where a key thermal power plant is located, is already facing shortages. The Moldovan government declared a state of emergency, emphasizing the seriousness of the situation.
A new era for European energy supply
The cessation of transit via Ukraine marks a decisive step in the transformation of the European energy landscape. If the European Union succeeds in reducing its dependence on Russian gas, it remains faced with major challenges: guaranteeing price stability, accelerating the transition to renewable energies and preserving the energy security of the most exposed Member States.
In the medium term, this disruption could encourage Europe to strengthen its energy infrastructure and further diversify its sources of supply. But this transition will have a cost, which European citizens are already starting to feel.
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